REJECT MONEYBAG PARTIES

*  Build A Mass-Based NCP
*  Fight For Socialist Policies To End Nigeria’s Crisis

The tempo of political activities has quickened in the country following the release of the time-table for the 2003 national and state elections by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). By this time-table, election into the National Assembly has been slated for 12th April, 2003 while the governorship and presidential elections will hold on 19th April, 2003. The polls is expected to be concluded with the election into the Houses of Assembly of the 36 states on 3rd May, 2003.
	As part of preparations for the elections, political parties have been organising primaries to select their candidates. The ruling party at the national level, the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) is to present President Obasanjo as its presidential candidate. The official “opposition” party, the All Nigeria Peoples' Party (ANPP) on its part has chosen to present another general and military dictator, General Muhamadu Buhari, as its presidential candidate. Two other ex-generals, Ike Wachukwu (National Democratic Party) and Emeka Ojukwu (All Peoples Grand Alliance) are also to be candidates in the presidential election. This has made some sections of the capitalist media to label the coming elections as the “war of generals”.
	Significantly, from the point of view of the interests of the working masses, the National Conscience Party (NCP), is presenting Chief Gani Fawehinmi, the renowned human rights activist and lawyer, as its presidential flag bearer. It has also been reported in the media that other radical parties like the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) headed by Alhaji Balarabe Musa, and the Democratic Alternative (DA) are also to field candidates for presidential and other positions.
	Against this background, what should be the attitude of workers, youth, the rural and urban poor and the working people in general to these elections? Put another way, what is the best approach to advance the socio-economic and political interests of the working people in the coming elections and the period thereafter?

NO FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE

The primaries of the main capitalist parties and their general attitude towards the elections shows that nothing fundamentally has changed from the pro-rich, monetised, ethno-religious, individualistic and self-centred politics of the Nigerian capitalist elite. Firstly, the selection of candidates in these parties have been so commercialised that only millionaire and billionaire treasury looters can take part in the primaries, let alone to emerge as party candidates. In the PDP and ANPP, for instance, aspirants were compelled to pay N5 million and N10 million respectively for the post of  president . This shows that electoral contest is seen as a kind of business venture, in which someone invests in order to reap millions and billions of naira later. This is a sure guarantee for the looting of public treasury if ever any of these politicians gets into power.
	The outcome of the primaries of the capitalist parties also again confirms the fact that the Nigerian capitalist class lacks any genuine idea or alternative to take the country out of its socio-economic morass. The primaries have been dominated by personal issues, intrigues and horse-trading, without any discussion on programmes and policies on how to take the country forward. This, however, should not be a surprise to the working people; this trend merely confirms the visionless character of the elite, a by-product of the neo-colonial economy, state and society which they preside over.
	Furthermore, there is the increasing revelation of the plan by the various factions of the ruling elite to rig the forthcoming polls. For instance, even INEC has confirmed the existence of two million fake names on the voters' register nationally. But INEC have also said that it had issued 80 million voters’ cards while the estimated voters’ population is put at around 56 million! Recently, the police allegedly busted the plan by a syndicate to print five million fake voters' cards! The fact that in the past three years, hundreds of people have either been killed or injured in violent clashes between the various factions struggling for power and positions within the various capitalist political parties, especially PDP, AD, ANPP shows the desperation of the various factions of the elite to get access to power at all cost. The various factions of the ruling elite only agree on one point: the imposition of anti-poor, neo-liberal capitalist policies such privatisation, commercialisation, retrenchment of workers, etc. on the working people. Against this background, the elections are likely to be characterised by disputes and crisis. Not only that. If any section of the capitalist ruling class should be elected into office, this will not in any way solve the problems facing the working people and youth or take the society forward. Whether Obasanjo is re-elected or he is replaced by any other capitalist administration, the attacks on the working people's living and working conditions will continue.

A WORKING PEOPLE'S ALTERNATIVE

To prevent this type of dangerous scenario from becoming a reality, the labour movement and the working people in general must, as a matter of urgency, put in place a working people socio-political alternative. This should start with  the building of a mass movement to fight against all capitalist attacks on the working people, and the building of a working people's political party which will organise the masses to struggle for power. But only a movement based on a socialist, anti-capitalist programme and perspectives can consistently champion the interests of the masses, moreso at the present period of capitalist economic crisis in Nigeria and internationally.
	Unfortunately, the leadership of trade union movement and the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) have not live up to their historical responsibility to build such a movement. Not only have they failed to consistently defend workers against privatisation, retrenchment, and other anti-poor policies of the ruling class, it has shied away from boldly posing a political challenge to the elite. Sigfinicantly, the Party for Social Democracy (PSD) recently formed by a section of the trade union leadership, has existed mostly on paper. It has failed to organise mass activities and it does not have any visible structure among workers and the masses in general.  

BUILD MASS-BASED, DEMOCRATIC AND SOCIALIST NCP

The only organisation which presently has the greatest potential to mobilise and organise the masses to defend their rights and capture political power is the National Conscience Party (NCP). But in order for it to fully realise its potential and live up to the expectation of the masses, NCP must be built as a grassroot, mass-based, and democratic party fighting uncompromisingly for the interests of the workers, peasants, youth and the urban and rural poor in general, whether it is elected into office or not. To achieve this, the NCP should defend the masses and stand consistently against all anti-poor, pro-rich capitalist policies such as violation of democratic rights, privatisation of public assets, commercialisation of social services, retrenchment of workers, non-payment of wages and pensions, repression of ethnic and religious minorities, and discriminations against women.
	NCP should fight for the rights of the masses to a living wage, full employment, free and qualitative education and healthcare, welfare benefits for the unemployed, the sick and the elderly, efficient and affordable water, housing, transportation and telecommunications and other basic necessities of life.
	But to be able to implement the pro-masses policies enumerated above and other laudable programmes which are contained in the party's 10-care programme, the party will have to stand for the public ownership of the commanding sectors of the Nigerian economy like petroleum, mineral resources, big industries and banks to be managed and controlled democratically by the working people. It must stand for the society to collectively own and the working people in the cities and villages to democratically control the country's wealth which are presently owned and monopolised by a super-rich minority of local and multi-national capitalists. 
	Only by this means will an NCP government have the necessary resources to implement the pro-masses policies which have endeared it to the masses and also ensure that these resources are efficiently utilised to provide for the real needs of the overwhelming majority of the people rather stupendous wealth for only a small minority as it is the case in the present neo-colonial capitalist arrangement. In other words, in order to abolish mass poverty, and eradicate hunger, diseases, unemployment, crimes, and ethnic and religious conflicts, an NCP government must be a workers' and poor peasants' government based on a democratic, socialist and anti-capitalist programme.
	To prevent or minimise election rigging by the ruling class parties in the coming elections, NCP should encourage its members and the working masses to establish democratic grassroot, local election monitoring committees who will be very vigilant and monitor voting in polling centres and the collation of the results. Above all the NCP must educate and organise the masses to be prepared at all times to struggle to defend their votes and rights.
	It is only by having and implementing the programme, policies and methods explained above that the NCP will live up to the expectations of the downtrodden working masses. The supporters of the DSM who are members of the NCP will struggle together with other party members to build the party and ensure that it fulfils the masses' aspirations.

GANI, ABORISHADE, ABASSI, AROGUNDADE ELECTED AS NCP CANDIDATES

The National Conscience Party (NCP) has been holding special congresses to elect the party's candidates for the general elections which will take place in the country between March and April 2003. 

LAGOS STATE

A special congress of the Lagos State chapter of the party held in Lagos on Monday, 6th January, 2003. The main purpose of the congress was to elect party candidates for the general elections into the offices of the state governor and deputy governor, and members of the state house of assembly. The congress was to also elect candidates for elections into the two chambers of the National Assembly (namely the Senate and House of Representatives). 
	The congress was attended by about 1500 members and supporters of the party. However, there were only 623 members accredited to vote. Those who attended were predominantly youth. The mood was quite enthusiastic and it reflected the growing confidence among members since the party was given official recognition on 3rd December, 2003. A sum of N5,600 was raised during a financial appeal.
	The congress had received wide media coverage. It was reported in at least five national newspapers and three TV channels in Lagos.
	The governorship nomination was won by Lateef Abassi, a pro-democracy activist and an officer of the party who was based in the US. Mrs. Teju Abiola, a former member of the National Executive Committee of the party, was elected as the deputy governorship candidate. Richard Akinnola, a journalist and media rights campaigner, was chosen to carry the party's flag in Mushin 2 constituency in the House of Representatives.
	Four socialists and members of DSM who stood as candidates in the party primary elections at the congress were successful. Among them is Lanre Arogundade, who was former NANS president and former chairman of the NUJ in Lagos State, who would be the party's candidate in the Lagos West senatorial district, the biggest and most populous in the country. Niyi Adewunmi, a lawyer and former speaker of the Obafemi Awolowo University students' union was elected for Ifako-Ijaiye federal constituency.

OYO STATE

The state congress of the NCP Oyo State chapter was held on Monday 6th January, 2003 at Teacher's House, NUT Oyo State wing, Oluyole Estate, Ibadan. About 100 people attended the congress most of whom were students\youths, middle-aged workers and professionals.
	The congress received adequate press attention as most of the invited media outfits, both print and electronic turned up to give coverage to the even.
	At the congress, some party candidates for the next general elections were elected. Femi Aborisade, the National General Secretary of the party, was elected as the party's gubernatorial candidate. Two of the candidates elected at the congress - one for Federal House of Representatives and the other for State House of Assembly - are women. Two socialist student activists were elected to contest for the State House of Assembly elections in next general elections. 

NATIONAL CONGRESS

The special national congress of the NCP to elect the party's candidate for the posts of president and vice-president took place on 8th January, 2003. A total of 516 party members were accredited for the meeting although about 1000 people were present. The congress elected the party's founder and national chairman, Chief Gani Fawehinmi, the human rights activist and lawyer, as the party's presidential flag bearer. Barrister Jerry Gopye, from Plateau State, was elected vice-presidential candidate.

FIGHT INEC’S “PROCESSING FEES”

On Friday, 17th January, 2003, at a meeting of the “Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Registered Political Parties Consultative Forum”
, INEC  informed representatives of the political parties present that a political party will not be allowed to present candidates for the 2003 general elections unless it pays to INEC, for the each of its candidates across the country, the following fees: Presidential candidate  N500,000, Senatorial candidate  N250,000, House of Representatives candidates  N150,000, Gubernatorial candidate  N300,000, House of Assembly candidate  N50,000. By this new, illegal, provocative and outrageous regime of fees being introduced by INEC, assuming all political parties were to field candidates for elective offices across the states of the federation, then each party would pay to INEC the sum of N169,950,000! And if this is multiplied by the 30 political parties, it amounts to N5,098,500,000 that INEC expects to gather from this illegal business of trading with political parties' contest and the democratic rights of Nigerians.
	The National Conscience Party (NCP), one of the newly registered political parties, has however vowed to fight this latest attempt by INEC to place another hurdle before it and other pro-masses, radical but poor parties to contest the 2003 elections. According to the NCP, “the imposition of fees on candidates is another attempt to rig election (before it actually held) in favour of the PDP and other ruling parties  ……
. why should wealth (genuinely or corruptly acquired), be the determinant of who should be candidates for election in a democracy”. 
	Apart from taking legal action, the NCP vows to organise “mass rallies, processions, and protests on the streets and to INEC offices throughout Nigeria”.
	The Democratic Socialist Movement (DSM) joins the NCP and some other parties to condemn this latest imposition of illegal and unconstitutional, so-called “processing fees”
 on political parties by INEC. We commend the NCP for its open rejection of such anti-poor proposition, and hereby declare our support for its earlier highlighted plans to compel the INEC to rescind its decision. We further call on the poor working people, market men and women, students and youths, trade unions, pro-democracy organisations, etc, and other parties to rally round the struggle against the illegal processing fees of INEC.
	INEC claims to derive its power to impose the illegal outrageous processing fees on political parties, from section 21 subsection (4) and (8) of the Electoral Act 2002. But this is false. 
	Nothing in the above quoted section of the Electoral Act 2002 empowers INEC, as it claims, to impose “processing fees”, or any other fees whatsoever, on party candidates. 
	But why would INEC insist on imposing the provocative, illegal “processing fees” on parties outside the provisions of all known laws guiding the conduct of elections in Nigeria? The answer is simple. INEC, as the electoral organ of the ruling, thieving, irresponsible capitalist elite, spread across the dominant capitalist parties of PDP, ANPP, AD, etc, cannot be expected to be unbiased in an electoral contest between its bosses and pro-masses, radical parties like the NCP, which has vowed, if elected to power, to probe the illicitly gotten wealth of its leaders and representatives; put through some radical reforms in areas like the economy, social security, education, health care, etc, and generally pose a threat to the ill-gotten privileges of the capitalist ruling elites. Hence, the preparedness of INEC, as a willing tool in the hands of the ruling PDP and other bourgeois parties, to introduce rules, guidelines and procedure, just like the illegal and unconstitutional processing fees, designed to prevent radical, pro-working people political parties like NCP from fielding candidates in the coming general elections, having failed in its earlier undemocratic attempt to prevent the registration of political parties until it was compelled by a Supreme Court judgment of 8th November, 2002. 
	In the December 2002 special bulletin of our paper, the Socialist Democracy, we stated: “
To us in the DSM, this decision by INEC to allow NCP and other political parties that were earlier refused registration to stand candidates in subsequent elections will go down in history as one of the decisive victories won by the working people since January 1966 when the military wing of the Nigerian ruling class first seized power and abolish the right to organise political parties and contest elections without having to first get the approval of the government or any of its agencies……
. But while the registration of the NCP undoubtedly represents a big step forward for the working masses, to us in the DSM, it should be seen just as a stage in the struggle of the masses for genuine multi-party democracy and an end to the endless life of mass poverty and capitalist oppression. A lot of huge obstacles still remain to be overcome”.
	Barely one month after, one of such huge obstacles has been thrown across the path of the poor working masses to enjoy their hard-earned victory recorded by the struggle for the registration of more political parties and the expansion of the political space, which was hitherto dominated solely by money bag, pro-rich, anti-poor capitalist parties. The NCP must therefore be prepared to continue to mobilize the poor working masses, which constitute the bulk of its members, the students and youth, other strata of the oppressed and all other change-seeking people to wage ceaseless battle against all undemocratic attempts by INEC and its masters in the ruling capitalist parties to deny it of the opportunity to offer an alternative to the working masses against the rot and irresponsibility represented by the current ruling capitalist class. The aim of INEC is to turn the registration secured by NCP and other parties into mere paper registration, knowing well that its newly introduced, unconstitutional and illegal “processing fees”
 can only be paid by money bag parties and politicians who have been responsible for the massive looting and outright stealing of our collective resources to the detriment of the poor toiling masses. INEC intends to operate a “democracy”
 of a very few, super-rich looters, military generals and rogues.
	Even if it fails in its latest attempt to create another unjust and illegal barrier for pro-working masses parties like NCP to contest the coming elections, and it is compelled by legal and popular mass actions of the masses to rescind this latest decision, INEC and the ruling capitalist class in general would still try other means to prevent a party like the NCP from capturing power. Those methods could even include the use of acts of violence against NCP members and activists; organising conspiracies against the NCP and pro-working people parties, and the outright rigging of the elections. Already there are widespread reports of the antics of the military generals, the moneybag politicians and their agents, whom INEC's politics of moneytisation is orchestrated to favour, to rig themselves to power, of course in collusion with INEC, in the coming elections. Already there are reports of the discovery of millions of fake ballot papers. 
	For instance, in The Guardian of Friday, 17th January, there is a report of the arrest of operators of a printing outlet who confessed to have been contacted to print fake ballot papers by a retired army colonel. According to the paper, the suspects also disclosed that the “colonel”
 agreed to pay N200 per copy of the fake card. They were to print five million cards, amounting to N100,000,000. So, while INEC is conspiring to churn out series of illegal, unconstitutional anti-poor, pro-rich-looters regulations to prevent parties like the NCP, its anointed bosses, the retired military generals and other moneybag politicians are busy plotting their game to rig out parties of the poor masses like the NCP in event that INEC failed in all its undemocratic attempts to stop the NCP and other parties from fielding candidates in the elections.
	Therefore, while struggling against the latest illegal roadblock mounted by INEC on its part, as represented by the so-called processing fees, NCP and in fact the working masses in general must take measures to minimize or prevent the ruling class parties from rigging the coming elections. To this end, NCP should encourage its members and activists and the working masses to establish democratic grassroot, local election monitoring committees who will be very vigilant and monitor voting in the polling centres and collation of results. Also, NCP must educate and organise the masses to be prepared at all times to struggle to defend their votes and rights.

“PROCESSING FEES MUST BE TOTALLY WITHDRAWN” – LAGOS NCP

Following massive opposition to the illegal “processing fees”, INEC on the 29th January, announced  the reduction in the said fees. But in a quick reaction to the latest decision, the Lagos State chapter of NCP has called for total cancellation and not partial reduction of the fees. 
	In a statement signed by Segun Sango, the state chairman of the party, the NCP says: “The attention of the Lagos State Chapter of the National Conscience Party (NCP) has been drawn to a statement credited to Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and repeated in some national newspapers including the Guardian of Thursday, January 30, 2003, to the effect that the commission has decided to slash its illegal so-called processing fees imposed on political parties candidates by about 80%. Consequently, candidates seeking to contest for political offices will now be expected to pay the following charges: Presidential candidate N100, 000 instead of N500, 000, Senatorial candidate N50,000 instead of N250, 000, House of Representatives N30,000 instead of N150,000, Governorship candidate N60,000 as against N300,000, and House of Assembly N10,000 instead of N50,000.
	While we acknowledge the reduction in the said unnecessary, illegal and provocative fees by INEC, we wish to state without mincing words that our position remains the same on this issue. We maintain that the so-called processing fees is illegal, unconstitutionally, null and void, abinitio and it should totally be withdrawn.
	Though INEC claims to derive the powers to impose the illegal fees on political parties from section 21 subsection 4 and 8 of the Electoral Act 2002, but such a claim is false. There is no existing constitutional or legal provision that empowers INEC to impose any such fees on candidates. In fact what the constitution state is that the Federal Government shall subsidise political parties and this is contained in section 228(c) of the 1999 constitution and section 81(c) of the electoral act 2002.
   Therefore INEC is only perpetrating illegality by attempting to impose the so-called processing fees on political parties and their candidates. As a principled political party that has always fought against illegality and struggled for the respect for the provisions of the constitution and enforcement of the constitutional and democratic rights of Nigerians, particularly the poor working masses, whom INEC's illegal processing fees is targeted against, we shall continue to fight this latest illegality of INEC, with all legitimate means available until total victory is achieved and the illegal fees are totally withdrawn.
  We are however happy that by our earlier actions and opposition to the illegal fees, this partial reprieve has been achieved.
  Meanwhile, may we also use this medium to condemn the action of the police on Wednesday 29th January, 2003 when men of police force physically prevented our members, who were exercising their constitutional right to peaceful protest to the Lagos State office of INEC to register our opposition to the illegal processing fees.
  We are baffled that even in a democracy the police could resort to such unconstitutional and unethical act with so much impunity.”    

REGISTRATION OF NCP SHOWS THAT STRUGGLE PAYS”
Segun Sango, Chairman, Lagos State NCP and General Secretary, DSM

Socialist Democracy (SD):  What is the significance of the recent registration of NCP by INEC?

Segun Sango (SS):  The most important significance of the registration of the NCP by the so-called INEC is that struggle pays. If the NCP and other 4 political parties that legally fought the battle to Supreme Court had folded their arms after the initial rejection of their registration bid, if the NCP leaders and members had not undertaken ceaseless propaganda and agitation against INEC's undemocratic, pro-rich political guidelines, the forthcoming general elections would have been an exclusive contest between the looters masquerading as politicians in PDP, ANPP, AD and other pro-rich political parties. This lesson that struggle pays was not only relevant yesterday, it remains absolutely crucial for NCP's today and tomorrow. For instance, having been forced to register NCP and other political parties, INEC and its pro-rich backers in government have now introduced a prohibitive “
processing fees” to ensure that a pro-masses political party like the NCP is technically knocked out from presenting electoral challenge for power to the present ruinous political leaders.
	Even if NCP and other pro-poor, pro-working masses political parties are eventually allowed to run candidates in the forthcoming elections, the ruinous members of the capitalist ruling class and their imperialist backers will stop at nothing to make sure that a party like NCP is stopped from coming to power, and if at all it comes to power, to do everything to obstruct the party's goal of abolishing poverty. This is because the capitalists measure their glory on the depth of the gulf that separates themselves from the living conditions of the impoverished working masses.
	Only concerted mass democratic struggles, which place at its centre the reconstruction and transformation of the prevailing unjust capitalist social order can ultimately brake the unholy conspiracy of the elites to kept the mass of the working masses and poor in perpetual socio-economic bondage.

SD:  As the chairman of the NCP in Lagos State, what is your assessment of the level of support for the party among the masses both before and after the registration?

SS:  I think there has always been a significant level of support for the NCP among the suffering working masses right from its inception. This has been undergoing a considerable growth since after the party has become officially recognised as a political party in Nigeria. What this shows is that there is a deep-seated yearning for a change on the part of the working masses to the prevailing bankrupt socio-political system. This by the way is being cynically acknowledged by the ruling class electoral tool called INEC. Plainly put, it has the fear that a pro-masses party like the NCP can begin to have serious political support of the working masses, a phenomenon seen as detrimental to the self-serving agenda of the capitalist elements nationally and internationally. NCP rank and file leaders must therefore fully appreciate the fact that only by consistently fighting for actualisation of the aspiration and basic economic and political needs of the masses can they continue to be relevant to the masses' quest for change.
	To this end, NCP must always see itself as a party of mass struggle. This is because the capitalist ruling class has never and will never voluntarily implement any economic or political measure that can fundamentally improve the lot of the masses. Even when they are occasionally forced by rhythm of class struggle to grant certain minimal economic and political concessions e.g. increment in minimum wage, registration of several political parties, etc., they always almost instantly implement worse counter-productive measures and policies such as mass retrenchment of workers, privatisation of the commanding heights of the economy, commercialisation of social services and basic needs such as food, housing, education, health care, telecommunications and lately monetisation of political contest, INEC's pro-rich “processing fees”.
	The masses must therefore not entertaining illusion. Meaningful change can only come out of mass struggles. These mass struggles must be centrally guided to right the wrongs of the prevailing capitalist disorder. How is this to be done? The greatest contradiction of the prevailing capitalist order is that the  natural and human resources required to guarantee a decent socio-political existence for the working masses and poor in general are in the hands of insatiable greedy, self-serving egoists. For as long as these elements remain rich in ill-gotten blood money, they care less and in fact revel in the mystery and oppression of the overwhelming majority of humankind. 
	The main revolutionary task therefore before the current generation of working masses and pro-masses political fighters is the creation of a powerful working people's controlled political party which is sensitive and willing to fight alongside the masses in their day-to-day economic and political struggle. While striving to always  combine this day-to-day struggle with the need for a complete social transformation of the prevailing decadent economic and political disorder.

SD:  Corruption among politicians is a major phenomenon in most capitalist societies, especially in the neo-colonial countries and particularly Nigeria. What do you think the NCP needs to do to avoid also being caught in this trap?

SS:  There are two fundamental ways in which the NCP can combat the virus of corruption that has been the bane of the Nigerian society. Firstly, the NCP leaders and rank and file members must always strive to make sure that its representatives holding governmental and party positions are held politically and financially accountable at all times. Among other things, this will involve measures aimed at building the party as a mass democratic entity wherein the rank and file members and structures of the party have a decisive say in the day-to-day running and policy formulation and implementation of the party. Representatives of the party, particularly those holding government positions must not only be compelled to make an open declaration of their assets, party members must ensure that they are not paid more than the average salary of those that they are representing. Unlike the present fake anti-corruption crusade of General Obasanjo's government, an NCP government will have to ensure that every corrupt official and persons are dealt with in accordance with the laws of the land. The NCP members must be prepared to fight for the right to recall any elected or appointed official who no longer represent the true aspiration of their electors. 
	Ultimately however, the most effective way to eradicate the prevailing corruption syndrome is to fight for the enthronement of a democratic socialist society wherein the basic resources of nature and society will be placed under the common ownership and democratic control of the working people themselves. Under this kind of arrangement, production will be geared towards the satisfaction of the needs of the entire society unlike the prevailing unjust capitalist order where the common heritage of humanity has been converted into private estates and fiefdoms of a few capitalist rogues in the name of privatisation.

SD:  The NCP was founded in 1994 in defiance of military dictatorship. In the present situation of civil rule, what strategy would you recommend for building the NCP as a mass-based, grassroot party?

SS:  The formation of NCP in defiance of military martial laws was a positive statement in the defence of democratic right of the working people. Presently, the military has been forced out of power for almost four years now, a constitutional government has come to be, yet, a cursory glance at the socio-economic conditions of the working masses both under the military and now shows that nothing fundamentally has happened to make the conditions of the working masses better under the prevailing so-called democratic dispensation. The capitalist civilian politicians across the country, across the political parties, have shown themselves to be self-serving and corrupt as their military counterparts. While of course, they do not have the boundless arbitrary powers of a military regime, the current set of rulers just like their military counterparts have exhibited a constant penchant for the violation of the economic and democratic rights of ordinary working masses and youth. The Odi genocide, the Benue genocide, the ongoing efforts to frustrate the efforts of the working masses to form and belong to a political party of their choice are just few of the undemocratic and dictatorial tendencies of the current set of civilian rulers. For the interest of the masses therefore to be guaranteed at all time, the NCP must be consciously built as a party of mass struggles, in and out of office, whose ultimate goal is the revolutionary transformation of society along democratic socialist path.

SD:  What are the prospects for the NCP in the forthcoming elections?

SS:  Against the background of the bankruptcy and wholesome corruption of the current capitalist rulers within the AD, ANPP, PDP, etc., on the basis of the enviable pro-masses tradition and anti-corruption crusades of the NCP leaders at national and state levels, the NCP has a very good chance of utilising the deep-seated desire of the working masses for a clear alternative to the present rot. It is very important however to know that this will only happen if the rank and file members of the NCP take the party programme and fighting tradition to the working class people and the poor in general. To this end, conscious effort must be made to adopt pro-masses and grassroot strategies in party's campaigns and mobilisation. While the looters in government will spare no cost on television, radio and bill boards adverts, NCP activists must see as a priority mass rallies, mass leafleting, mass postering, door-to-door campaigns among the working class people and poor in general. If this is consistently done, the mass of the working class people and youth will surely deepen their support for the party not only in the coming elections but also in the aftermath.

IMF’S FAILED RECIPE
By: James Long

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has a justifiably hatred reputation in Nigeria. This international agency is rightly seen as one of the instruments used by imperialism to secure implementation of the austerity policies, SAP and its successors, that we have endured since the mid-1980s.
	As part of its role, the IMF maintains an office here checking the “progress” that Nigeria is making towards carrying out the imperialists' objectives. Regularly this office prepares a report, the latest of which was published on January 2nd, 2003. Notwithstanding the IMF's completely pro-imperialist and pro-capitalist role, this latest report confirms the utter rottenness of Nigerian capitalism and the ruling elite's corruption and looting.
	Right at the outset the IMF states something most Nigerians already know from bitter experience: “the high expectations from the return to democratic rule for growth and poverty reduction have not been fulfilled” (page 6).
	Generally the IMF confirms that the economic situation is worsening. In 2001 and 2002, “the fiscal deficit widened, the external current account deteriorated, inflation accelerated, and the parallel exchange rate premium increased …
 an expansionary fiscal policy, lower reserves, rising domestic short-term debt, and a weak banking system raise Nigeria's vulnerability” (page 4). What this means is that the government is printing money, what the IMF calls a “
sharp increase in government spending” (page 5), in a pre-election effort to meet some of its bills and boost the economy, but the result is more inflation, further sharp falls in the naira's value, more debt and increased danger of another financial crash.
	Understandably, the PDP keep quiet about this and especially the IMF's call for “monetary tightening” (page 4), i.e. yet more austerity measures after the elections.
	But even more importantly, the PDP also keeps quiet about the IMF's more significant conclusion that Nigeria's economy actually is shrinking, declining by 0.9% in 2002. The IMF directly challenged the Federal Government's official claims. The report states “the authorities project real non-oil GDP to grow by 7.8% and overall GDP by 1% in 2002  significantly higher that the (IMF) staff's projections of 5.3% and 0.9%, respectively …
 the (IMF) staff argued that available data on non-oil; economic activity did not support such a high growth rate; over the past decade, the non-oil economy had not experienced annual growth rates exceeding 4%” (page 17).
	Indeed the IMF report points to the good harvests, because of good rains, and the growth of telecommunications as the only positive factors in the non-oil economy (page 6). But both are not stable. A good harvest can easily be followed by a bad one, the rains are not the same every year. Furthermore, the telecommunications boom is dependent on people earning enough in other sectors of the economy to buy phones, make calls and use the Internet. As far as the rest of the Nigerian economy is concerned, it is in decline.
	Now it seems that there will not be any benefit from the current high price of oil. It seems that this extra windfall revenue is being used to import oil in an attempt to overcome continuing problems at our refineries and ensure that there are no fuel shortages in this pre-election period.
	Along with painting a bleak picture of Nigeria's economy, the IMF are damning on the ruling elite's corruption. Referring to government spending it asks that “
emphasis should be placed on reconciling warrants, mandates and transfers by the Office of the Accountant General in coordination with the Central bank of Nigeria”
 (page 27). In plain speak, this means that there should be full records of how and where government money is actually spent, not just the formal budget plans. In an appendix, the IMF goes further and write: “
fiscal data in Nigeria have historically been opaque” (page 55).
	Very diplomatically, the IMF suggests that this “should start in the oil and gas sector. This could include the publishing of annual audited reports and accounts of the national oil company and its subsidiaries, as well as those of the private oil companies incorporated in Nigeria. The next step would be to audit and publish the accounts of federal government expenditure, so that the public could see the uses of oil (and non-oil) revenue” (page 27). 
	How polite! But how utopian are the IMF's pleas! For decades the Nigerian elite have based their wealth on looting the country, they have no idea of trying to develop the economy. Hence the looters', and would be looters', massive financial investment in elections so that they can grab a share in the nation's income. That's why there are no accounts and, if any accounts where produced, they would be rigged just as the PDP falsify the general economic data. 
	But this situation is not just a result of a robber mentality. It reflects the fact that, in a world economy dominated by imperialism, the local Nigerian capitalists cannot compete with the big boys either in the world or home markets. So the local capitalists either loot or become agents for the imperialist monopolies. This is why on a capitalist road there is no solution for the Nigerian masses.
	A report like that of the IMF gives only figures, it does not say what the facts mean for the lives of the Nigerian masses. 
	Statements that the Nigerian economy contracted by 0.9% in a year have to be taken in the situation where the country's population is rapidly growing. The report gives the World Bank's estimates that in less than 20 years, the total population has grown from 83.2 million to 126.9 million now, of which 70.2% live below the international poverty line or received less than $1/N130 naira a day. This means that, on average, income per head fell by more than 0.9% last year.
	The report also shows the gap between rich and poor, the richest 20% of Nigerians get 55.7% of the country' total income, while the poorest 20% receive only 4.4%. 
	The report's figures show how the past twenty years have witnessed a terrible decline. To give one example, during these two decades an average Nigerian women's life expectancy has fallen from 49 to 48 years, while a man's has remained at 47 years. In the same period the there has been a huge jump of the numbers, 25.5 to 55.8 million, living in urban areas as grinding poverty and lack of development forced millions to flee from the countryside to the unplanned chaos and often destitution in our cities.
	The IMF report offers no way forward, just the failed recipes of privatisation to benefit the imperialists and rich, and austerity measures for the rest of us. Only a break with the rotten system of capitalism can take us out of this downward spiral.

NLC’S DELEGATES’ CONFERENCE
Time For Labour To End Pro-Capitalist Policies
By Olamide Olatunji

The 8th delegates conference of the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) comes up on February 6th, 2003 at Abuja. The conference is essentially to elect officers to run the affairs of the congress for the next four years.
	There seems to be no serious challenge to the incumbent leadership of Adams Oshiomhole, who looks set to get another four years mandate. However, there is a need for a critical review of the first four years of Adams Oshiomhole’s leadership. 
	Unlike the ponderous, openly right-wing leadership of the NLC of Pascal Bafyau's era, the current NLC president, Adams Oshiomhole, has brought robust flair to debate on labour and other relevant socio-political issues. Cogent facts and figures are produced by the leadership to back-up  its campaigns.
	However, the NLC leadership's propaganda and programme all suffer from a fundamental weakness. Every one of its programme and policy is always based on the illusory perspective of wanting to make capitalism and its managers perform better, in the interest of the working masses. The NLC leaders have retreated from their mid-1980s acceptance of socialism as the objective of the labour movement and today see no alternative to capitalism. Hence the labour leaders are unwilling to let struggles develop to a point where they challenge the whole capitalist system.
	The Adams Oshiomhole leadership has led a series of national strikes against fuel price increases and also engaged some state governments for non-payments of the agreed minimum wage. Also some companies and banks have not been spared. But in the NLC's campaign against casualisation, the ambiguous position and pronouncements of the NLC leadership on issues such as privatisation, deregulation and commercialisation has done a lot of damage by creating confusion amongst the working class and raising serious doubts about the ability of labour to combat the ruling class. 
	The NLC leadership's membership of the National Council on Privatisation that has been overseeing the sales of public assets has also not helped matters Instead of openly mobilising against the sales of public property, Adams Oshiomhole is saying that “workers should be allowed to buy part of the companies” as if the workers even if allowed to 'buy' have the money to do so. The NLC leadership hinges its support for the sales of NITEL, NEPA, etc., on the basis of these public enterprises not being “functional”.
	As socialists have always maintained, there is nothing intrinsically wrong with public ownership of society's economy and resources. However for such public ownership to fully flourish, there must be actual “public”
 working class democratic control and management of all publicly owned resources. Wherever publicly owned resources and properties are left under the management and control of individualistic, bureaucratic, capitalists elements, it has always produced disastrous consequences against the economic and political interests of the working masses. Under this kind of arrangement, corruption, nepotism, red-tapism, mismanagement, etc., are bound to be the order of the day. It was precisely this lack of working class democratic control over the nationalised and centralised economies of the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe that led to the eventual collapse of these Stalinists entities.
	For the same reasons, NITEL, NEPA, etc., are not working not because they were not given sufficient money to operate, but because most of such money were usually stolen in the best spirit of “private enterprise” by its self-serving managers who are in no practical sense accountable to the masses who constitute the bulk of their expected customers.
	The NLC under Oshiomhole's leadership has waged a lot of campaign on the issue of increased minimum wage, and since he assumed office, the official minimum wage has increased from N3,500 to between N5,500 and N7,500 for private and public sectors respectively. Regrettably however, this has not brought about any fundamental relief or improvement in the living conditions of the masses. While of course, as usual with capitalism, a tiny layer of the working masses may have achieved a noticeable improvement in their living standard, it has been a different ball game for the generality of the working masses.
	On the basis of this increment alone, hundreds of thousands across the country have been retrenched by the different sections of the employers, on the pretext that those sacked could not be conveniently paid by their employers as a result of this increment. For this same reason, a state of virtual embargo against new employment reigns. Even thousands of those that have been unjustly retrenched, like those in Lagos state are yet to be paid their terminal benefits since after their unjust sack. As usual, the capitalists government's excuse is that there is not enough money to meet workers basic and legitimate aspirations, meanwhile no matter how broke the government is, the top officials and their capitalists contractors and friends will always find enough money to meet their own selfish ends.
	Therefore, the minimum wage issue must be seen by socialists and working class activists as an issue that can never be satisfactorily permanently resolved in favour of the working class within the framework of capitalism. Whatever concessions the capitalists are forced to make in new minimum wage will always be negated by other counter-productive measures. This could be in form of back log of arrears of salaries and allowances, mass retrenchment of workers, commercialisation of indispensable social services like housing, health care, education, water, electricity, telecommunications, etc. Unfortunately however, the current NLC leadership gives the impression that adequate minimum wage can be won within the framework of capitalism. This is a fundamental error.
	Labour politics is equally fundamentally flawed. Truly, Adams Oshiomhole's leadership has consistently raised criticism about corruption in high places. It has even organised protests and demonstrations against perceived corrupt tendencies of members of the National Assembly at a time. Sadly enough, this critique is usually done with a view of getting capitalist state functionaries or sections of the ruling class to effect necessary changes. Sadly however, the NLC leadership has failed to draw the appropriate conclusion that what the labouring masses need is a clean break with the policies and parties of the capitalist class.
	The NLC leadership also sponsored and formed the Party for Social Democracy (PSD), one of the parties newly registered by INEC. But because of its pro-capitalist programme, its lack of a fighting strategy and the lack-lustre record of labour leaders, this party so far has not attracted support of even workers, talk less of other strata of the oppressed masses.
	However, socialists and working class activists must not regard these fundamental shortcomings of the Oshiomhole leadership as a personal or national peculiarity. Rather, this should be seen as part of the world-wide, right-wing shift and ideological retreat by the labour leadership following the collapse of the Stalinist states, which were erroneously equated with socialism. Therefore, part of our central task today is to fight for the acceptance of basic socialist explanations and approaches in the day-to-day struggle of the working masses, in the trade unions and within youth organisations.
	There is the need to return labour to its best radical past. The trade union movement needs to be rebuilt ideologically and organisationally, with educational programmes and mobilisation activities. There must be grassroot democracy in unions, with rank and file control over the policies of the unions and the leadership. Opportunist and corrupt leaders should be replaced democratically. To reduce the corruption and careerism, which have eaten deep into the unions, labour leaders at all levels must be democratically elected and should receive not more than the wage of an average skill worker. Without this kind of approach, the current NLC leadership's selective economic and political radicalism will soon completely run out of steam. It is never given that a correct political understanding and bold leadership will always automatically win every struggle. Even then, it will be easier for workers to recognise the reasons why a particular objective can not be attained and what should be done to achieve same.
	Sporadic campaigns against the privatisation and deregulation of the oil sector, while giving support to the privatisation of NEPA and NITEL will always leave workers confused and ideologically unprepared. The conclusion has to be sharply drawn that the working masses need to carry out protracted mass struggles and strikes with the ultimate goal of overthrowing the prevailing unjust capitalist system.
	The point to be stressed is that only a socialist society can provide the socio-economic framework, where production and services will be primarily planned for use and satisfaction of the needs and aspirations of everybody. Under a genuine socialist government of workers and poor peasants, there will be less need and opportunities for profiteering and racketeering which are the hallmarks of the prevailing unjust capitalist system. Unless this outlook forms the basis of Oshiomhole's NLC in the coming period, its seemingly radical and progressive stance on certain issues affecting the working masses will always inevitably end in cul-de-sac and even outright betrayal of the masses.

OAU CLOSURE:  THE ISSUE AT STAKE

By Mojeed Ibrahim

The students of Obafemi Awolowo University Ile-Ife have been out of classrooms since June 2002 and the authorities have announced the new regime of fees with the introduction of new charges and increase in the payable fees. 
	The students are supposed to have resumed since September 2002. The perpetual closure is as a result of different developments that have cropped up. These developments stem from the characteristic crisis of the education system ranging from misappropriation, dishonesty and insincerity of the government, administrative insensitivity to the under-funding. Specifically, the industrial actions embarked upon by the non-academic staff unions and the academic union at different periods are responsible for the closure.     
	In August, 2002 the university's chapters of Non-Academic Staff Union and Senior Staff of the Nigerian Universities went on a joint strike to demand payment of their 30 month long due (examination allowance) entitlement. They alleged authorities to have misappropriated the funds meant for that purpose. 
  	When this strike was called off and the authorities intended to reopen the school, they could not do so because the Academic Staff Union of Universities had ordered its members to withhold the results of the students for the previous semester. ASUU exploited this action to force the authorities and the government to replace the two steps that were cut from their salaries. The authorities argued that the scrapping of the two steps was as a result of a circular issued by the minister for education, Dr. Babalola Borisade. However, in spite of this circular, the authorities of some universities paid the normal salaries while some including those of OAU Ile-Ife did not. The lecturers  considered the action of the government  arbitrary and as a slap on their face in that it amounted to demotion of every lecturer by two steps and more so since the original salary that had already been implemented before the issuance of the circular, was a product of roundtable between the ASUU and the government. The government has now ordered the replacement of that two step, but this after the academic staff had  gone on a total and indefinite strike over the non-implementation of the June 2001 agreement between the government and the ASUU. The agreement contains allocation of 26% of the annual budget to education, recall of the unjustly sacked 44 lecturers at University of Ilorin, special funds for the state universities from the federal cover, etc. 
	By now, there is no end in sight to the on going ASUU strike as the dialogue between the union and the government has yielded no fruit. This implies that students of OAU Ile-Ife will stay much longer at home, in fact until further notice. However, at present, they are not alone as they have been joined by the students from other universities.   
	Whenever, the school is re-opened, the students of OAU Ile-Ife have to contend with the question of the school fees. To the authorities the increment has come to stay and in fact they have refused to dialogue with the students union despite the willingness of the later. They have been using the closure of the school as a threat to enforce the implementation of the policy. It can be recalled that earlier in September  an impression was  created by the authorities propaganda machinery  that the students' union was the obstacle to the reopening of the institution due to its resolve to fight against the obnoxious increase in fees, in order to divide the rank and file of the students and weakened their collective resolve against the policy. It took no time before the truth came up.   
  	Although, the efforts of the students' union leadership so far as regards the struggle against fees are commendable, they have  to intensify its mobilisation and campaign on this so as to properly educate and sustain  the steadfastness of the students who are obviously are  tired of the prolonged stay at home and may have been thinking of backing out of the struggle. The students will have to be made to realise that the struggle can be won only if the they take the pain to take last step towards the total victory. A mass movement of the students on resumption will  make it clear to the university authorities that the students are serious on their resolve to fight to the last. As stated earlier authorities may threaten to close down the school again if we protest, we should refuse to be bothered and carry on. That is a pointer to the victory.  It should be noted that balance of forces between authorities and the union will determine the outcome of the struggle..
	The union leadership will also have  to enlighten the students on the need to appreciate the essence of the current ASUU struggle which is revamping of education with proper funding, justice for their colleagues in UNILORIN, among other legitimate demands. The students ought to fight along with the staff and not unduly attacking them. 
	However, the union should also agitate for the need for a joint action of all students and the staff unions within the university system. It is only the alliance of the oppressed strata of any society, led by focused working class leadership with anti-capitalist programmes that can fight and win a better living conditions and welfare for the people on a lasting basis. Moreover, the Federal Government will not have the cause to blackmail any union as being fighting for their selfish interest alone.

THE GLOBAL STRUGGLE FOR SOCIALISM

BRAZIL: Lula’s Election A Step Forward But…….
-Andre Ferarri, a member of Revolutionary Socialist, the Marxist Tendency inside the Workers’ Party (PT), Brazil

The 8th World Congress of the Committee for A Workers International (CWI), the revolutionary socialist organisation to which DSM is affiliated, took place in Belgium last November. The conference was attended by 125 delegates and visitors from 25 countries. The DSM representatives at the meeting asked some of the delegates about the situations in their countries. The excerpts from the interviews are presented in these two pages:

The recent election of Lula in Brazil has raised the hopes internationally, particularly in the third world countries like Nigeria, amongst the working masses of the prospect of a radical shift from the prevailing global pro-rich, pro-capitalist policies to ones geared towards fundamental improvements in the living standard of the ordinary Brazilian masses. What in your views are significance of Lula's election? What are the programmes and outlook of Lula and the PT leadership? Are they capable of bailing Brazil out of its social and economic crisis?

Andre: On the question of election of Lula, we think that it was a big step forward for the working class in Brazil. Lula is a former metal workers who first because publicly known  as a representative of metal workers in the ABC industrial districts around Sao Paulo during the military rule in Brazil in the end of the 1970s and beginning of the 1980s. It was the first time a country as unequal as Brazil, one of the most unequal in the world, had elected a former worker as president. Brazil is very close to Nigeria in some aspects on the question of oppression and exploitation of the masses. In a country like this, the election of a metal worker as a president is a big step and it has a big impact on  consciousness internationally. This election also represented a defeat for the bourgeoisie. The bourgeoisie are mainly the imperialists, the IMF and the speculators and bankers. They didn't want Lula victory in this election. They did what they could to stop this. They tried to build a bourgeois alternative. When this did not work, they tried to bring Lula more close to their ideas and policies. But we think that the election of Lula was not in the plans of the bourgeoisie. It's a defeat for the bourgeoisie. But how should we now view the PT's situation  and the policies of Lula? There is a danger that the masses' expectation of a radical change will be happen, does not really happen. So, the election it is a big step forward but it is not finished yet.
	The PT in 1980s was characterised as a left wing party that was against including the tradition of social democracy of Europe and also against the Stalinists, given the experience of Stalinist parties in the eastern Europe and USSR and so on. So, the PT in the 1980s supported the idea of non-payment of foreign debt, the nationalisation of the banks, workers' control in the main sectors including the nationalisation of multinationals and so on. It was a really radical left programme in the 1980s.
	Things changed in the 1990s after the collapse of the Stalinists, the PT suffered a shift to the right. Now, the situation is very different. The PT of the 1990s is not the same thing with PT of the 1980s. But there is still something left of the PT of 1980s  namely the mass base that PT has among workers and peasantry, etc. But now the main intention of Lula during the election was to convince the Brazilian bourgeois and the imperialists that he will not represent a challenge to them. So, this was the main intention during the election. So, the PT perhaps compromised with an agreement with the IMF because Brazil was in August and September of 2002 in a situation, very close to Argentina situation. We were talking of “Argentinisation”
 of the situation in Brazil on the question of economy and Lula during the campaign signed an agreement with the IMF that the PT government will help to cut in social services and continue to pay the debt, etc. So, the problem of PT during the election was not the traditional problem of the PT. It was not the problem that we in the left wing of the social movement and PT supported. But we think that in the government, there will be a new situation. There will be the pressure from below. From one side to the other side, there will be economy crisis with the struggle not with the negotiation but with the struggle of mass movement on the streets to put pressure with the breakdown of IMF, etc. That is the main issue. That the mass movement will have to go to the street and this will precede what will happen in Brazil in the next period.

What are the slogans put forward by your organisation during the said elections.

Andre: Without the mass movement, it will mean Brazil will go toward Argentina situation. There is no alternative to this. But for us during the election, the first thing that we think was important was to make clear that the PT we supported is not the current PT, is not the position of the majority of the leadership of the party during the election. So, simply, we stand against the alliance with bourgeoisie parties like liberal party that has the vice-presidency now. Lula's vice-president is not a member of PT. He is a bourgeoisie, he is a member of liberal party, so, we stand against these alliances and during the election, we did not call for votes in general for the PT-led alliance, we called votes for Lula a critical votes because of the PT's programme and the alliances. We also called the vote for the candidates for members of parliament who were from the left wing of the PT. We thought it as necessity to give more strength to the left wing of the party, not all the party with one of our slogans “
Our PT is socialist and without bosses”
. Just to show the social basis of the PT that there are really two PTs. There is one that is close to the bourgeoisie and there is one confined by the leadership but has links with mass movement and trade unions and the youth. We also stood against the general economic programme  presented by the PT on the agreement with the IMF, on the payment of debt and general economic policies. Lula for example said Brazil needs more 10 million jobs in the country and this generated big expectation of this question. We agree that Brazil needs 10 million jobs and also Lula said every Brazilian needs to eat 3 times a day and this is a big issue in Brazil as there is hunger. So, we supported this. But what we think is that the only way to get this is to break with IMF and imperialist, non-payment of the bad debt with nationalisation of financial system and with the economic plan for nationalisation of some enterprises that are needed for the economic plan of anti-capitalist and socialist character. We stood for these during the elections and we went to build a support for left wing idea as the left wing is still alive in the workers movement in Brazil and also in PT.
	We think that in the first period, the PT proposal for social pact was supported by Bush strongly because they did want workers to organise strike but just to wait for the solution peacefully. But we think that some layers of the workers could have illusion in the first period. They will think that they have the president now (a worker) with the bosses in the table and the trade unions and the movement that they are in majority and may be they could get something without hard struggle, etc. For a period, probably, this illusion will remain, but this will not be forever.

What are the perspectives for the working masses as a consequence of this victory?

Andre: In our own opinion, the question of return of masses struggle in new situation with Lula's government will be prospective in the next period, in next year. For example, the question of minimum wage for the public sector workers could provoke demonstration and struggle, which has not been increased for 8 years. The question of land, the landless movement and the question of agrarian reform and the question of the demand of the students' movement that is very strong, etc. So, there is prospect that the mass movement will be done with more force than before. There is also the perspective of very difficult economic situation because, probably in the next year, we will be in recession. More than this, there is possibility of financial crisis because of the problem of the debt in the country. This is a time-bomb that can explode at any moment including the first month of next year. So, the question of mass movement with financial crisis can provoke an explosive situation like in Argentina but with a difference that there is a little bit organised left PT and out PT can put the possibility of building socialist force stronger than before. So, there is no solution for the economic crisis if Lula doesn't break with imperialist, IMF, etc. So, that is going to be a build-up to instability, crisis, struggles, resistance and the opportunity to build socialist alternative.

SWEDEN:  Increased Support for Socialists

-	Ingrid Erikson, Councillor from Socialist Justice Party on Umea City Council, Northern Sweden.

You had elections recently in Sweden. What is the political significance of the outcome of the said elections?

Ingrid:  Less people voted than before, the most important thing was that the right wing had a catastrophic result. They lost a lot of votes because people rejected their policy of big privatisation and cuts in the welfare system. The most important issue for us is to defend the public sector, the welfare system and also the public workers and demand wage increases and better working conditions for them. That has been our main campaign during the eleven years we have been councillors in Sweden but also we raise naturally the question about socialism being necessary to protect the welfare system. In the long run, we have to have control over the big banks and the big companies in Sweden. Another important question is that of racism, to fight both racism and racism that have developed in Sweden. We have grassroot campaigns with young and old people who will be active every night and day in the working class  areas.
	We stood out in different parts of the town and met people and discussed with them. I think we have the most energetic campaign in all the parts of our town and the response was really good. We have very strong feeling that a lot of people spoke about us. They discussed us on work places and so on. Not all of them voted for us, but we had feeling that a much broader layer of people is looking at us and are interested and follow what we do on our work and perhaps in the next election, some of them will vote for us. So we increased our votes by 40% and won an extra seat.
	Another important issue is that people are angry with the salaries the politicians give themselves at the same time as they demand that the low paid workers should not demand high wages. We have the policy that we remain on a workers wage. We get some money to be in the council but all that goes directly to our campaigns and to our party. This is a big thing for us, we always tell people that we don't earn any money being councillors. We do not personally keep our salaries. We give them away to campaigns and so on. And also often in our leaflets publicise the wages of other councillors and a lot of people like to read that and to really get to know how much they earn, what privileges they have and so on. But naturally, the other parties and politicians don't like it. They get angry. But in Sweden, being a councillor, there is not so much money and privilege. You get some small money every month because its only a part-time. It's one day and most people have ordinary job on the other days. But the higher politicians in the government and also in the councils, there are those who work full time for the councils, have high wages and travel to many places. We never do that stuff. We used to display our protests against this on the fence outside our party office.
	We were a bit afraid in the beginning that people will not be motivated to stand in the streets collecting money. We have both increased our subs and our incomes from the daily work with paper sales and fund raising. And we try to use the money that we get from the council seats to both to campaigns and investing in a better party apparatus.

The CWI of which your party is an affiliate strongly believes in a party or organisation primarily funded by the subs of its members so as to avoid corruption and influence of alien ideas. How has the financial fortune of your party (arising from the huge sum being paid to elected councillors) affected the payment of the subs by the generality of the members of the party?
Ingrid:  In the beginning, when we first were elected to council in 1991, we had a lot of discussions about two and we were all afraid that perhaps some members would think that now it's not necessary to be out in the streets to collect money and so on. But it hasn't happened. People are more motivated now because we have the council seats. They can see that we can take issues from work places and from the streets directly into the council. So, it has not been the case.

US:  This is Bush’s Oil War

-Tyron Moore from Socialist Alternative, USA

The US imperialism and its allies are planning to wage a war on Iraq ostensibly as part of the struggle against international terrorism. How does the Socialist Alternative view the reasons put forward by the Bush administration over this issue?

Tyron: On the question of Bush war on Iraq, we recently held a public meeting called “Ending Bush's lies -argument for anti-war movement”
. And at that meeting in January, we put forward that the supposed motivation for war-weapon of mass destruction, bringing democracy to Iraq and threat of terrorism the Bush is using to justify this war are completely bogus. We believe that the real motivation for this war for US imperialism is to give an example of its military power and secure control over Iraq, which has the world's second largest oil reserves. The Bush administration is seeking to use the events of September 11 to justify to American people and working masses of the world US imperialist aims. So we say this war is fundamentally about the attempt of the US multinationals, the US ruling class to create a new world order which Bush senior initially declared. Now Bush junior wants to fulfil his father's dreams and establishing US capitalism as even more damning and repressive force around the world. This war on Iraq is to send a message to anyone, any movement, any nation, who will stand up against the interest of US imperialism and to show them that they will face complete destruction if they stand up against US imperialism.

Against the background of the terrorist attacks of 9/11 on the WTO, what is the general mood of the US workers and youths over the proposed war on Iraq?

Tyron: After the September 11 of course, the nation was shocked into confusion. US workers raged at the mass destruction in New York in particular and are enraged that anyone for any reason who chose to conduct this outrageous attack on ordinary New York workers. However, in the aftermath of Bush war on Afghanistan and now the preparation of war on Iraq, the mood has so much shifted. In fact, we see a tremendous polarisation of views in our society. There is still a section of workers, young people and of course middle class who still feel for security and therefore are behind the Bush administration.
	But there are growing layers who see the fact that Bush is not only attacking working people abroad with his supposed war on terrorism but is using the strength that he gained from this war to cut living standards at home by attacking working people, young people and immigrants. So, there is a growing mood of anti-Bush sentiment and that is crystallised in the anti-war movement in the US which is big now, before the war on Iraq has actually started, as was the anti-Vietnam war movement in the late 1960s and early 1970s after 5, 10 years of fighting. The culminating event of the anti-Vietnam war movement was 200,000 people marching in the Washington DC , today's anti-Iraq war protests have been at least the same size.

As the most developed capitalist country in the world today, that is a country accounting for 76% of the total economies of the advanced capitalist countries in the western hemisphere, what is the living standard of the American working class like?

Tyron: Living standard of American workers is quite different and I think most people around the world imagine is nothing like you see on the TV or on the movies. In reality, American has one of the highest polarisation of wealth in the world. The gap between the rich and the poor in America is bigger than its been in the entire history of our country today. And we see now the new economic recession forcing conditions of the working poor even worse. So, most workers have been forced to take two jobs, 3 jobs, the cost of living in many US cities is rising at a much faster rate than workers are able to compensate for and this fact is captured by the fact that an average American worker is deeply finding it difficult with living standard.

What is the overall living conditions of the black Americans today as compared with the pre-civil right movement of the 60s?

Tyron: Of course, the civil right movement in the 60s tremendously raised, especially on the political level, the conditions of Black Americans but from the point of view of social condition, actually, for most black Americans, the situation has gotten worse. They face naked racism and American version of apartheid up to the 1960s. But they certainly face racism in terms of employment, in terms of housing, in terms of schools, in terms of police brutality and on the question of segregation of the schools, one of the major initiatives that the civil right movement took up, in fact, today, even though segregation ego sense has been bent, in reality, the cities and towns in America remain segregated.
	And the public schools, in fact for all intents and purposes remain quite segregated. And of course, the schools for young blacks and other minorities in the US attract the worst funding, worst conditions and these have expressed themselves in mass demonstrations against police brutality, and we can foresee in the future a growing mass movement of working black people in resistance to racism but also to the economic condition and we think in the next period, this will express itself in class terms.

What are the perspectives for the growth of the socialist alternative in the US?

Tyron: I think the first thing to say is that there is a tremendous vacuum in US society that is huge outrage, huge anger at the establishment. The scandals of Enron and co. have had a tremendous impact. But the fact is that the defeats of the last two decades have left the working people without the kind of class consciousness that we find in most countries around the world. And so, it is a question of rebuilding the class consciousness and beyond that for a need of socialism for building the fight for social condition against the capitalist class and in fact, to take them over.
	So, we feel that in the next coming period, there will be explosive movement of US workers and youth and the prospects of building the currently small socialist forces in this country are quite good. We are setting a target in the next period of growth and we find more and more as we go into community, we've getting a better and better response. The old days of the cold war, with people equated socialism/communism with totalitarianism are disappearing, especially for the young generation and there is a new opening to socialist and revolutionary ideas that we've not seen in decades.

VENEZUELA
THE CRISIS DEEPENS

By Olamide Olatunji

On the 2nd December, 2002, Venezuela's opposition leaders declared a national strike, demanding the immediate resignation of the President Hugo Chavez. Earlier in 2002, the opposition had demanded a referendum, which the National Electoral Council had acceded to before the Supreme Court annulled the decision.
	As it ground on through a seventh week, the national strike has effectively crippled the oil industry; it has also led to a shutting down of the state's oil firm, PDCSA, where production has reduced by more than 90% (and that is because the strikers chose to supply enough fuel to keep the lights on and protect heavy industries, whose machines would be damaged by a shutdown). Venezuela, the world's fifth exporter of oil, is losing around $50m per day in oil exports alone. The strike has also started hitting other industries and there are fears of food and gasoline shortage and increased street violence among the populace.

THE CLASS WAR

The national strike (which probably includes element of a lock-out) isn't exactly a class war between the Venezuelan working class and the presidency. Rather, the opposition is headed by the bosses organisation  FEDECAMARAS, most of the middle class and their “civic” organisations, section of the military and the labour bureaucracy in the leadership of the Venezuelan confederation of workers (CTV). This bloc is also supported by the corrupt, rich 'oligarchy', which sees Chavez's constitutional and land reforms as the work of a “crazed Marxist”.
	However, Chavez is no socialist revolutionary. He is a former army chief, who retains passionate support amongst most poor Venezuelans, which depends on oil revenues within a creaking capitalist economy. The country's is thus enmeshed in series of pro-Chavez and anti Chavez demonstration often ending in clashes with police.
	The background to this bitterly fought class struggle is Venezuela's parlous economy. Like other south and central American countries, the downturn in world economy and the collapse of stocks and shares on world financial markets has also hit Venezuela. Its economy shrank by a massive 10% between April and June 2002 alone, mainly as a result of the ruling class and international financiers moving money out of the country.

CAPITALISM'S FAILURE

Around $8 billion (equivalent to 8% of Venezuela's economy) was siphoned out of the country in 2002 alone. By some measures, 85% of the country's 23.5 million population live on the bread line. Capitalism has failed and must be replaced. In fact, the US government does not hide its disdain of the Chavez regime (despite his own limitations); he is alleged of trying to install a Cuban-style communism in the oil rich nation. The US state department has called for national elections as the only possible solution!

FORWARD TO A PEOPLES TAKE OVER

In April 2002, Venezuela's oligarchy, backed by the US administration, attempted a coup d'etat, removing Chavez and installing a businessman, who promptly set about suspending democratic rights. The coup attempt however fell apart on the third day, when thousands of pro-Chavez supporters, mainly from poor neighborhoods of the capital Caracas, marched on the presidential palace demanding his release and restoration as president.
	The lessons of the April failed coup and the mass protests that led to its failure should guide the Venezuelan working class and should inform the need for them to organise to prevent the forces of reaction from succeeding.
	Democratically elected committees of workers and the poor must be set-up in the work places and neighbourhoods, with armed defence militias. Soldiers too should establish rank and file committees. There should be no trust in reactionary officers.
	Above all, the workers and peasants must build their own independent and democratic movement and fight for a workers’ government with a programme of socialist change.

ISRAEL/PALESTINE:  Capitalism Is The Root Of The Crisis

-	Ariel Gottlieb, Mavaak Socialist (CWI Israel)

What are the issues behind the seemingly endless war, suicide bombings, etc., going on between the Israeli state and the Palestinian masses?

At the roots of the conflict are, basically, the socialist issue at work, meaning inability of capitalism to provide decent standard of living for the masses of the region, the unfulfilled Palestinian aspirations for a state and the fact that Israeli state tends to serve the interest of imperialism in the region. Their term of achieving peace of course is due to failure because on the capitalist basis, it was not possible nor would it be in the future to solve this difficult issue. Same also occur to Palestinians. Most Palestinians, their living standard deteriorated, their living standard does not improve and this meant that an eruption was likely to happen at certain point which is what happened in September, 2000.

How does your organisation view the militaristic, strong arm strategies of the Israeli state vis a vis the agitation of the Palestinians for self-determination on the one hand and the security and economic welfare of the Israeli working class people and youths?

It is clear that there is no military solution. It is clear that it is not possible for the Israeli ruling class to quash the intifada by force. They've been trying this for the last two years, they've not been able to quash the intifada and of course these repeated offensive incursion into populated are the curfew, the closure, etc., they cannot provide security for ordinary Israeli. That is very clear to anybody with opened eyes. They can perhaps prevent at a cost some of the bombings but the presence of the army, the ongoing occupation, curfew, the humiliation of hundreds of thousands of the Palestinians create the condition for the next wave of bombings. So, we have in a way a dead end now because the intifada strategy that couldn't lead to genuine national and social liberation and on the other side the Israelis ruling class is totally incapable of providing general security and peace to Israelis.

You have many Israelis who are sent to carry out reserved duties in the occupied territories repeatedly for a number of days. Emergency call-ups are increasing. At the age of 18 or 19 Israeli men serve 3 years in the army and women two years, after that they go back to serve at least one month a year in the army until they are in their 40s. We now have a growing number of reservists who are refusing military service not necessarily because of political objection but because they cannot provide for their families. Generally, the conflicts are exacerbating sharp economic recession. Israel is going through over the last two years. It is not solely responsible for the economic crisis. The other reason includes the world economic downturn but the Israeli are paying the price for huge defence expenses, the collapse of stories industries, fleeing of investments from the country, etc.

The militaristic strategies of the Israeli state has obviously failed to stamp out the spate of suicide bombings by the Palestinians activists of Israeli targets, what effects has this being having over the ordinary Israeli people? Put differently, has this approach produced or likely to produce a mood amongst ordinary Israeli masses capable of forcing the Israeli state to acquiesce to the demand of the Palestinians for a homeland?

We approach this issue of suicide bombings not from moral point of view because some action carried out by the Israeli military and some of the Jewish Settlers in West Bank in Gaza strip just as appalling but form the point of view of the strategy needed for the Palestinians to liberate themselves, the suicide bombings turn totally unproductive because the political outcome of these bombings is that ordinary Israeli workers are driven to the hands of the most reactionary politicians because they feel that their families existence is threatened. An effective strategy for the intifada will be instead first of all to democratise their struggle to build democratic popular committees to conduct struggles from below and at the same time to appeal to ordinary Israelis as well as soldiers against the Israelis ruling class because Israelis workers also suffer from the policies of the government not just on the issue of peace and security. They suffer from the exploitation by the Israelis capitalists, from the right wing neo-liberal economic policies of Israeli government.

What in your views are the issues and programmes needed to achieve an atmosphere of permanent peace and economic security for the working masses of both Israeli and Palestine?

It is clear that the National Liberation of the Palestinians and the social liberation of the masses Israeli-Palestine and all regions of the Middle East will only possible within the framework of struggle against capitalism. Basically against the ruling elite of the whole region which means against Israeli capitalism, against the corrupt Palestinian authorities and against bourgeoisie of the whole region. So, the struggle may not be united at the onset but as the class struggle develops, as the Palestinian masses increasingly see the treacherous and damaging role of the leadership of the Palestinian authorities as well as the Islamic organisation offering no way forward, there could be possibility of linking the struggle. So, its primarily the tasks of Israeli workers and youth to topple the government and ruling class in Israel and for Palestinians to struggle both against Israeli occupation and against the wrong, repressive and corrupt leadership of the PLO. Only through struggles on both sides will it be possible to create unity in struggle that could provide basis for genuine lasting peace and we mean by that creating, out of revolutionary struggle, a socialist Israel and independent socialist Palestine. Of course, we call for the right of the Palestinians to self determination unconditionally but the past years have shown that there cannot be a genuine independence for Palestinians under the framework of capitalism and the struggle to socialist state could provide the basis for socialist confederation of the whole middle-east which could then relatively swiftly move to solve the issues of poverty, unemployment, on refugees problems as well as the right of Palestine refugee. This is really the only way.

KAZAKHSTAN
LIVING ON THE THIN LINE OF POVERTY

-	IONUR KURMANOV,  leader of young communists, former leader of trade union “Metaeeist”, Kazakhstan (part of the former Soviet Union)

It's now over one decade that capitalism has been re-introduced into Kazakhstan  after the collapse of the planned economy of the former Soviet Union, what are the conditions of the working class and youth in capitalist Kazakhstan?

IONUR: The result was the called, in neo-liberal slang, the extraction of the economy. Now, we have total collapse of all sectors of our economy and social structures which means health insurance, schools, hospitals and everything. It was old communist party bureaucracy which got everything in this country. And it was youth and the working class which lost everything: hospitals, schools, free education, future.

Internationally, the collapse of Stalinism is presented as the failure of socialism as an organisation fighting for a socialist world, how does the Kazakh workers and youth react to your programme and activities?

IONUR: At the beginning of the 1990s it was mixed, although many people still believed in the vision of a about Marxist system, despite all the terrible effects of Stalinism. But now, according to social research, 80% of people do not like their position, the situation in the society and 70% of people live on the thin line of poverty. It is determined by the economic situation that very wide layers of young workers came into our movement, came into socialist organisation. It's not just the problem of choice, it's the problem of life, of survival. People want to survive. We think that our main task now is to free the communist movements, to free workers' movements from any remaining Stalinist influences. Now, a lot of people come to our organisation, not to Stalinist organisations but to us. There are less illusions in the West as Kazakhs can see that American, British, French, Belgium multi-national companies coming in and buying everything in terms of plants, mines and everything. This helps the real, anti-Stalinist, communists.

UI STUDENTS’ UNION VICTORY:  NOT YET UHURU
By Ojo Olajire

No doubt, the December 6th, 2002 judgement at the court of appeal in a case between UI students' union and university authorities is a major victory for UI students in their struggle for independent students' unionism. The ruling will go down as one of the decisive victories won by the students since inception of students' unionism on that campus.
	It would be recalled that the UI authorities filed a suit at the Federal High Court, FHC, Ibadan, against students' union over an election conducted by students on 29th November, 2000.
	The judgement at FHC delivered by Justice DJK Lawson reads thus “--- it is hereby ordered that the Defendants (Lawal Akeem, Sangotade Tinuade, Wale Eleto, Musa Toyin, Bello Temitpe, Lawal Ibrahim) shall be restrained from acting as duly elected officers and\or parading themselves as duly elected officers of the students' union of University of Ibadan ---- it is further ordered that the Vice-chancellor shall direct that the students' union shall conduct a Fresh election on or before the end of the first quarter of the year 2001.
	Not satisfied with the jugdement, the students' union filed an appeal against the order granted to the UI authorities at FHC. While the legal action was on, the battle also took political dimension. As a result of the battle, students were attacked with obnoxious, anti-students policies, some students' union leaders/activists were victimised and some are still penciled down for 'disciplinary' action through one of the authorities instruments of discipline students, Students Disciplinary Committee, SDC.
	The reason for all these attacks cannot be separated from UI authorities’ readiness to desperately control the unions, both of students and staff, not only for their selfish interest but to implement to the anti-poor policies of the Obasanjo administration whom authorities are representing. It is to facilitate the emergence of pro-authority leaders in the students' union who will be incapable of defending students' rights and interest at all time. 
	But while the ruling at Court of Appeal represents a big step forward for independent students' unionism, it should be seen as an avenue to struggle for better welfare conditions of students and staff, well-funded education, democratisation of all decision making bodies of the management of higher learning etc.
	A part of the battles ahead is the “review” of Students' union constitution by the UI Senate despite the Court of Appeal ruling that recognizes the students' rights of association and independent organisation of their activists. The greatest headache of UI authorities, however, is the determination of the Students' Union to exert its independence and free itself from the control of the authorities. The November 29th 2000 election was conducted on the basis of a new constitution. The constitution which had been approved by the Students' Representatives Council, the legislative arm of the union is more democratic than the previous constitution. The “review” of Union constitution by the UI Senate, a body on which the students do not have a single representative is very undemocratic and therefore it should be thrown into waste bin of history.
	The arbitrary increment and introduction of fees such as ID card, hall maintenance where a bed space is being sold at the rate of N3,500, N10,000 and N25,000 for undergraduate and postgraduate respectively, with extraneous agreements called tenancy agreements, and others. But with the education commercialisation and privatisation policies of Obasanjo administration and constant demand on school management, including UI, to increase internally generated revenue, this means that students will be asked to pay more for not-up-to-standard education they receive. So there must be a pounding pressure by students and other change-seeking individuals towards hike in school fees.
	Having gone through years of battle, the confident of students of UI must be first of all restored back to the union. The students' union leaders/activists should make it as a point of duty for proper dissemination of information to students if the need arises. There is the compelling need to produce periodic leaflets, posters, organise rallies, symposia, mass protests/demonstrations to educate students and members of the public, and equally press home their traditional demands. To guide against isolation, efforts should be made to have working relationships with academic and non-academic union, labour union, change-seeking organisations/individuals, and if possible a political party that has focus and genuine leaders that have the interest of the poor people at heart, with programmes and manifestoes where workers and poor masses shall seek to struggle for power in order to an build new society for all and stop the looters ruining us again.
	More importantly, it should be cleared that a major step that can gives total confident of students in the rebuilding of their union is to ideologically reorientate and rearm the mass of students and establishment of socialist groups. The primary task of these groups will be the training of a new layer of socialist cadres among the students and workers.
	The primary task confronting all genuine activists/socialists including the cadres of Democratic Socialist Movement, (DSM), therefore is the task of rebuilding student movement into a virile, programmatic, democratic, mass-based and fighting organisation leading struggles against anti-poor capitalist policies and programmes in the short-run and as partners of the working class in the struggle for the transformation of the society. It is only the socialist transformation of the society and nationalisation of the commanding heights of the economy under the democratic control of the working class will bring the required long-lasting solution to the working masses, youths, traders, artisans, professionals, peasants, of the country and no amount of tinkering of the present market forces (capitalist) economy will alleviate the mass poverty and misery in which poor masses are forced to live.             
	Without the persistent pressure and agitation by students and other organisations like DSM, pro-democracy activists, UI authorities as agents of Obasanjo would have succeeded in violating the democratic rights of UI students by denying them the freedom to organise and conduct their affairs independently. Who then says struggle does not pay for a just cause. If we fight we can win!

NANS ZONE D PROTESTS AGAINST THE VICTIMISATION OF AKUNGBA 19

•	Victory Recorded At OSCOED

By: Alayande Stephen T
NANS Zone  D Coordinator

On the 1st and 2nd of  December, 2002, the National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) Zone D and the students of Adekunle  Ajasin University Akungba held a protest march and a 2-day lecture boycott on the campus to press home the demand for the immediate reinstatement of Iranlowo Ojuri and 18 student leaders.
	It would be recalled that the affected students' union leaders were rusticated and expelled following their roles in a student demonstration of April 2002 when they demanded an improvement in the appalling state of infrastructures on the campus with the provision of standard lecture rooms, a modern well-equipped library, laboratories, adequate offices for lecturers, toilets and recreational facilities etc. It is on record that prior to the said student demonstration, facilities available on the campus for learning, teaching and research were nothing to write home with about 8-9 lecturers sharing a single staff room, students falling over themselves to receive lectures in  very small and dusty rooms, library is of capacity for less than 50 students out of thousands, amidst many unpalatable situations.
	It is important to state that while the authorities of the institution found the student demonstration as a necessary impetus to awaken them to their responsibilities in providing facilities in the institution as some of the demand of the students are now being gradually met, they still thought it wise to make those who acted as the “messengers of truth” the sacrificial lambs.
	Unfortunately, it was in the cause of the second day lecture boycott and peaceful protest march that a detachment of mean-looking armed mobile policemen swooped on the peaceful congress of the students, firing indiscriminately, beating and maiming innocent defenceless students. Several students  were wounded , seven  including the students' union president (Ojuri Iranlowo) were arrested, tortured and taken away to Akure by mobile policemen. They were however released alongside the impounded Mercedes Benz 1414 bus belonging to the OAU students' union (one of the buses in which the NANS Zone D had used to conduct the intervention to the campus) seven days of after the unlawful detention.
	It is disheartening that despite the current civil rule with the toga of democracy, the current custodians of the peoples' mandate who are supposed to hold the respect for fundamental rights of citizens like Governor Adefarati of Ondo State chose to maintain the Abacha like despotic manner, by giving orders to mobile policemen to shoot at students, arrest, detain and even refuse them bail after intervention of lawyers. 
We commend the revolutionary intervention and solidarity of all the unions that have contributed to the struggle of the Akungba 19 and most importantly the resoluteness and doggedness of the students of the institution, but it must be stated that it is not over until it is finally over, for if we continue to struggle and mobilise we can win but if we do not, we have lost already. The battle continues politically, legally etc until our colleagues are recalled.
	In a related development,  it is note worthy to say that our struggle at the Osun State College of Education Ilesa, has yielded some fruits, ranging from the reopening of the institution, a slash to the reparation fee to N300, dropping of the planned victimisation of students' union leaders, purchase of a new students' union bus by the college authorities who had earlier sold the bus, conduct of students' union election as against the supposed ban on union activities amidst others.
    	Lastly, this further buttresses our point that our strength lies in our collectivity, we have nothing to lose but our chains of oppression.

ASUU STRIKE: FG, HONOUR THE AGREEMENT

•	Joint Action Needed For Total Victory

By Ojo Olajire

Since 29th December, 2002,  academic activities in all universities have been halted as a result of industrial action of the Academic Staff Union of Universities, ASUU. The ASUU decided to embark on the strike to demand the immediate implementation of the June 2001 agreement signed between it and the federal government. The agreement, which basically centres on  funding, university autonomy and restructure and basic salary contains among other things allocation of the 26% of the budget to education in line with the UNESCO recommendation and reinstatement of the 44 sacked lecturers at University of Ilorin.
The government has since flagrantly violated the agreement. For instance, the allocation to education thereafter has even been less than the previous one before the agreement and it has been progressively decline.7.0% was allocated in 2001, 5.9% in 2002 and 1.83% is proposed by the government for 2003 in its appropriation bill currently before the National Assembly. Moreover, in relation to the 44 lecturers of UNILORIN, the government has not only repudiated the agreement, it has also openly aided and abetted the sustenance of their criminal and unjust persecution by the then despotic  Vice chancellor of the university, Shuaib Oba Abdul Raheem and General Salihu Ibrahim, the pro-chancellor and a former Chief of Army Staff. This is to mention but few.
The government and ASUU have gone back to the negotiation table. The crux of the matter now is that the government is calling for the review of the agreement while ASUU insists on its Implementation. But meanwhile the  government has announced the 30% increase in the over head cost  for the university and the  full approval of Universities Academic Staff Scale. This is a bait for the ASUU as it is an attempt to limit their struggle to basic salary and to divide their rank and file, since some members may tend to jump at such carrot. The struggle of ASUU as contained in the agreement is to revamp the collapsing education. 
 	However, it is instructive to state that while the struggle of ASUU is commendable, the task of revamping of education should be shouldered by the every staff union in the sector (i.e. ASUU, ASUP COEASU, SSANU, NASU, SSAUTHRIAI, NUT etc. )  along with the Nigerian students. There should be joint action among the staff unions and the students with formation of a formidable force that can give the required strength to the struggle. In the meantime, ASUU should take the struggle beyond the four walls of campuses by organising public rallies and  symposia in order to enlist physical participation of  the working people and to mount a political pressure on the government.   
This government's brazen and shameless violation of the agreement is not unconnected with its characteristic contemptible attitude to the education in line with the IMF/World Bank dictated neo-liberal policies of privatisation and commercialisation of education and other social services.  
Our institutions lack adequate and necessary facilities for qualitative studies like libraries, laboratories, classroom, portable water supply etc. The institutions are run like military barracks with brazen infringement on the rights of the students and members of staff to freedom of expression , association, etc. The calling for the return of police posts back to campuses, by Committee of Vice-chancellors, is a pointer to the fact that various school authorities are hell bent to suppress popular and genuine struggles of students and workers for better academic and welfare condition.  
	Contrary to ASUU position and demands of Nigerian students, the government has resolved to shirk its social responsibility of adequate funding of education as it has created basis, through  under-funding of education, for the authorities of institution to impose various obnoxious charges and fees on the students. This has been making the education the exclusive preserve of children of the few rich and treasury looters. Moreover, the sorry state of our institutions, from the primary to tertiary,  is not a concern to the governments since they can afford to send their wards to private schools or abroad to acquire good education.. The education is expected to be funded from the abundant resources of the country and the tax payer money not from the pocket of the government functionary.
As ASUU and other staff unions along with the students are fighting for proper funding of education, the sight must not lost on the fact corruption is another phenomenon that has compounded the financial crisis of the education sector. Therefore, we must equally demand for democratic management of our institutions with the elected representatives of the students and academic and non-academic staff.   
Ultimately, the struggle must be linked with the overall struggle of the working people against the entire IMF/ World Bank induced neo-liberal policies of deregulation of essential services, privatisation of commanding heights of economy, commercialisation of social services, devaluation of Naira. The struggle must be equally elevated to political realm for a socialist reconstruction of the society as against the exploitative, oppressive anti-people and pro-rich system called capitalism   

VICTIMISATION AT UNILORIN:
NO END IN SIGHT

By Lanre Akinola

It seems that the authorities of the University of Ilorin (UNILORIN) have placed itself above the law. In the past five years, UNILORIN authorities have ignored several orders of the various courts of the land. It is on record that the immediate past vice-chancellor of the institution, Professor S.O. Abdulrahhem treated various court orders to reinstate both victimized staff and students with impunity. 
	When Abdulraheem failed to get the extension of his tenure and he was eventually kicked out of office, the general feeling was that the new vice-chancellor would correct various injustices perpetrated by the administration of Abdulraheem. But, instead of correcting the injustices, the new Vice-chancellor, Professor Shamsideen Amali is determined to maintain the status quo. 
	It is on record that the National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) wrote a letter to the new vice-chancellor urging him to obey the various court orders in respect of victimized student activists. He was urged to ensure the immediate release of final statement of results of Lanre Akinola and Rasheedat Adesina being withheld since 1999 and reinstatement of Tosin Akinrogunde, Hammed Balogun and Kayode Mogbojuri in the interest of justice and in obedience to various court orders on the matters. But, up till today none of the student activists has been reinstated or their final statement of results released.
	The administration of UNILORIN under Professor Shamsideen Amali has also refused to address the case of the sacked lecturers. Instead, his administration has been victimizing lecturers operating under the UNILORIN ASUU Coordinating Committee. Their offence is that they are calling for the reinstatement of their sacked colleagues.  
	To show the crudeness of the present vice-chancellor, recently, he mobilized some deans and directors to make representation to the Federal Government that UNILORIN community does not want the sacked lecturers back on campus. But, the fact is that majority of students and staff want the sacked lecturers' back on campus.
	Finally, the on going ASUU strike over the sacked lecturers at UNILORIN and other matters should be supported by Nigerians. Instead of calling on ASUU to suspend the strike, Nigerians should put pressure on the government of President Obasanjo to honour the agreement reached with the ASUU in June 2001. 
	Meanwhile, the position of the Federal Government that ASUU should accept the posting of sacked UNILORIN lecturers to other Federal Universities is laughable and untenable. This present position of the government reveals that the sacking of lecturers can no longer be justified but instead of compelling the administration and Governing Council of UNILORIN to reinstate the sack lecturers, the government wants Nigerians to believe that UNILORIN community does not want the lecturers back hence the idea of posting them to other universities. 
	If truly, the government does not want to 'impose' the sack lecturers on UNILORIN, why did the same government want to impose them by way of posting on other universities? In any event, the lecturers were not sacked because they were rejected by the university community but for their participation in ASUU nationwide strike in 2001. Hence, the issue that UNILORIN community does not want them should not arise.
	Conclusively, the truth of the matter is that both President Obasanjo and Minister of Education, Dr. Babalola Borishade have realized that the sacking of the lecturers is unjustifiable but they do not want to go against their earlier statements that the decision of UNILORIN administration and Governing Council to sack the lecturers is irreversible and final. The issue at stake is ego and nothing more.

NCP RALLIED AT AJEGUNLE

By Emmanuel Adikwu

Residents of the Ajegunle Community witnessed a different ball-game entirely on Saturday December 28th, 2002 as members of the National Conscience Party (NCP) in the area stormed the streets of the community, armed with leaflets, posters and solidarity songs.
	It was an eventful day as the procession started as about 12.pm. from the secretariat at 5, Kojo Lane. Despite our limited resources and materials, we were able to make the desired impact and it goes down in history as one of the most important events of the party in the area.
	Though, the turn out of party members was not too impressive as most members present were members of the exco which was as a result of the festive season, the significance of the programme cannot be over-emphasised. In fact, some of the people of the community even joined us in the course of the procession while a handful of them demanded for more leaflets so as to give to people in their neighbourhood.
	The procession took us through Ago Hausa, Achakpo to Tolu via New Road and down to Boundary where we all parted. So lessons which have emanated from that programme, I think are as follows:
	So many people who have been impoverished by the past and present governments and who see the National Conscience Party (NCP) as a party that can savage them from penury are out there waiting, without knowing how to reach us. It is only through avenues such as this that we can be able to get across to them and possibly recruit them.
	The question of education also comes to the fore. During the rally, some of our new comrades could not give answers to some of the questions being asked by the people. This is as a result of the fact that some of us are not truly rooted in the ideas, philosophy and programmes of the party.
	The issue of recruiting women also is of utmost importance, as there was only one lady who took part in the procession.
	And also, when next a programme like this is to hold, we should provide more leaflets as that also constitute a setback in the rally.
	But in all, I think we have done well and should not relent in our efforts to emancipate the downtrodden people of the society form the stranglehold of the oppressors.

MINIMUM WAGE AGREEMENT:

GOVERNMENT MUST FULFILL ITS PROMISE

By Victor Osakwe

Sometimes in August 2002, at the height of the impeachment saga when the National Assembly was planning to impeach him, President Olusegun Obasanjo reaffirmed that his administration will implement the remaining aspect of the year 2000 minimum wage agreement  from January 2003. . But since the beginning of the year, there has been a debate whether the federal government actually accepted to increase the minimum wage by 12.5%. While labour leaders insist that the federal government did mention this, the leaders of government are denying that they ever agreed to it.

THE 2000 MINIMUM WAGE AGREEMENT

A cursory look at the year 2000 minimum wage agreement will show that part of the agreement signed was that the minimum wage will be increased by 25% in may 2001, 15% in May 2002 etc in order to bring it level to the true rate of inflation in the country but ever since the increase in May 2000, the government has refused to implement the other part of the agreement. The government has continually waged a propaganda war in the media that the chunk of the federal budget goes to wages and that only a small percentage is left to carry out any meaningful projects for the people. This is contrary to the fact the wages and benefits of political office holders and official corruption, combined with inflation of contracts is responsible for the consumption of the largest chunk of government budget. The position of government is no different from the position of private sector employers of labour whose interest is always to keep wages of their workers low so as to continuously be declaring large profits to themselves and their shareholders yearly while their workers continue to live in object poverty.

SACKED WORKERS

As a result of the implementation of the May 2000 minimum wage agreement, hundreds of workers were thrown out of their jobs all over the country. An example of such was in Lagos state where comrade Ayodele Akele, state chairman AUPCTRE also the chairman of the council of industrial unions (in the public sector) was retrenched with thousands of workers all over the state just after the partial implementation of the May 2000 agreement in Lagos state. Worse still, those sacked both in the state and federal civil services are yet to be paid their pension and benefits on required by law. While political office holders are awarding to themselves huge wages and benefits backed by inflated contracts. Up and down the country sacked workers are been on the street demanding for the payment of their gratuities and pensions to no avail. The Nigeria Labour congress (NLC) should take up the fight of these people while at the same time demanding the implementation of the minimum wage agreement as signed since May 2000. It is necessary to commend the ASUU led by Dr. Dipo Fashina of Obafemi Awolowo University who has taken up the struggle of its sacked colleagues at the University of Ilorin who were unjustly victimised as a result of their participation in a nationwide strike called by their union.

THE NLC

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) leadership should insist in the implementation of the increase. It should embark on a comprehensive mobilisation of all sections of workers showing with facts and figures that the federal and state government have the capabilities to pay the minimum wage. It should be ready to embark on a strike action if necessary just as ASUU is doing. The NLC should map out strategies to call out its workers on a 24 hours or 48 hours etc general warning strikes if it really want to see that the minimum wage is implemented as signed  as a first step towards bringing the minimum wage of civil servants to meet the rate of inflation in the country. 
	The NLC leadership should also draw into its fold the hundreds of sacked workers as a result of the partial implementation of the May 2000 agreement. It should take up the plight of the pensioners both at the federal and state levels in order to ensure workers that if the government decides to retrench or sack them as a result of the implementation of the  minimum wage agreement in full, it will meet stiff opposition from the NLC or else workers’ enthusiasm will be low to fight for the increase in the minimum wage and the fight would have been lost before it even takes off.

INFLATION

While on the one hand, it is always assumed that an increase in minimum wage always means that workers are going to be better off on the long run, it should be realized by all workers that no amount of wage increment will put a final end to the misery of all workers in the country. The previous increases has shown that inflation has always led to complete fall in the real wage of workers. Price rises of goods and services produced by both the private sector and public sector has always made the cost of living very high for workers. Increases in prices of fuel, food, transport, accommodation, telecommunication, electricity, education, etc, will sooner or later turn any increase in minimum wage to be worthless.
	It is therefore necessary that workers and all other strata of society strive to see that the domination of the Nigerian economy by the capitalists at both internal and international levels is put to an end. This is what is responsible for the continuous impoverishment of the Nigerian workers. The profit motive of all capitalists will always make sure that what is given to the workers through one hand returns back to them through the other. It is only under a nationalised planned economy which is democratically controlled by the working class can we see incessant hike in cost of living and thus an endless cycle of demand for wage increases and struggle against retrenchment and sack combined with lack of payment of pensions and gratuities.

VICTORY FOR KABELMETAL WORKERS

Rufus Olusesan, a worker, trade union activist, socialist  and DSM member, who was on 7th December, 2002 unjustly and arbitrarily sacked by the management of Nexans Kabelmetal Nigeria Plc, Ikeja, Lagos, has been reinstated. This followed eight days of strike by workers which brought work and other activities at the company to a standstill. To make the strike action which commenced on 16th January, 2003 effective, the workers also picket the factory daily.
	The workers were demanding the reinstatement of Rufus who was sacked because of his consistent defence of workers' rights in the company. They also demanded the immediate resignation or removal of Mr. Muyiwa Owotumi, the deputy general manager (human resources), whom workers think was the architect of most of the anti-worker policies and actions of the company. 
	The sacking was a pure act of victimisation. Rufus did not commit any offence. No allegations were made against him, no offence was stated and above all, he was not given any opportunity to defend himself. The sack letter from the management simply says his appointment was being terminated "for acts inimical to the interest of the company". Only Kabelmetal management knew these acts. But in reality, the sacking of Rufus was meant by the management to serve as a lesson to any union activist who may want to stand up to fight for decent working and living conditions for their members. It was meant to keep the workers in perpetual slavery and oppression. But workers resolved that enough is enough.
	The immediate cause of the Rufus' victimisation was a levy of N1,000 deducted from workers' November salaries by the then pro-management local union leaders in connivance with the company management. The money was deducted unilaterally without any consultation with the workers by the local union executive and the management. On 3rd December, 128 workers out of about 200 workers in the company wrote and signed a petition protesting against the deduction and demanding a refund. The next day, 4th December, the pro-management local union leaders wrote to the management asking that action be taken against Rufus Olusesan and some other workers for alleged acts of "insubordination".
	The national leadership of the Steel and Engineering Workers Union (SEWUN) played a commendable role during the dispute, supporting the strike and picketing. The Campaign for Independent Unionism (CIU) also helped to organise solidarity against Nexans Kabelmetal both within and outside Nigeria. As a result, some trade unionists and working class organisations in Nigeria and abroad wrote to the company management to demand the recall of Rufus Olusesan. Protest letters were sent to the company from Germany, Britain, Belgium and United States.
	The workers are still demanding the refund of N1,000 deduction, the removal of Mr. Muyiwa Owotumi, an end to the victimisation of union activists, refund of the National Housing Fund deducted from workers' salaries, and an end to casual labour.	
The Democratic Socialist Movement (DSM) salutes the workers on their well-deserved victory which shows that only struggle can guarantee victory for the working class. We call on the new union executives, who were elected during the struggle with Rufus as the chairman, to conduct the affairs of the union in an open, transparent and democratic manner. Mass meetings of workers should be held regularly to discuss the programmes of the union and take collective decisions.

IRAQ:
STOP US WAR MACHINE

By Peluola Adewale

The Gulf is now in a serious nightmare, the incubus of monstrous American war machine has gripped the region. The Armageddon has concluded preparation to pay visit; blood shall flow. All for the oil. The chief warmonger, George Bush has deployed over 150,000 soldiers, airmen, sailors and marines out of the 250,000 billed by the Pentagon to wreck havoc in Iraq, to the Gulf. Tony Blair has sent 25,000 troops, a quarter of the entire British Army, and much of the Royal Navy as well. This was much before the United Nations weapon inspectors led by Hans Blix and Mohammed El Baradei of the International Atomic Energy agency submitted their first reports to the UN Security Council on January 27.  
	Hans Blix  in his progress report on the two-month weapon inspection stated that Iraq had only reluctantly complied with the United Nation's latest demand to disarm and that there was no genuine co-operation from Iraq. He said further that Iraq left large gaps in its December 7 2002 12,000 page arms declaration. According to him Iraq had not accounted for up to 300 rocket engines and 650 chemical bombs. Moreover, Iraq blocked private interviews with the scientists and it balked at U2 surveillance flights over the whole country, Hans Blix stated. However, Blix was unable to corroborate the claims of the US that Iraq had rebuilt the weapon of mass destruction arsenal, saying that he could not give a categorical verdict. Equally, Mohammed El-Baradei in his report said that he had no proof of an Iraqi nuclear weapon programme. And, unlike Blix, he asked the Security Council to give more time for their work to be comprehensive.    
	These reports were seized upon by the US and British governments to step up their propaganda for war. To Bush, the whole essence of the weapon inspection is to justify the planned military action by all means and to probably carry along more countries particularly among those permanent members of the Security Council who are still not prepared to support immediate war. 

OIL FOR BLOOD - THE ACTUAL REASON FOR THE WAR

As at present, Bush has looked beyond the war; he has started thinking of the post Sadaam Iraq. Colin Powell has made clear that the US plans that its military will take the essential decisions in the event of winning a war. To sugar this pill the Bush administration said, in a report sent to the Congress on Tuesday January 21 2003, 'Should it become necessary to take military action against Iraq the United States, together with its coalition partners will play a role in helping to meet the humanitarian, reconstruction and administrative challenges facing the country in the immediate after the conflict'. The report further stated that, 'The US is fully committed to stay as long as necessary to fulfil these responsibilities, but is equally to leave as soon as the Iraqi people are in position to carry those responsibilities'. 
	There can be no doubt that the US's agenda is 'regime change' in Iraq. Although, the US has tried to make the world to believe that raison d'être for the war with the Iraq is the possession by Baghdad of weapons of mass destruction, in reality it is the demonstration of US's world position as the super power and its oil and strategic interests  in the Middle East that has necessitated such military action. To holistically actualise these set goals, Saddam must be ousted, a pro-US regime be installed with heavy US financial, material and military backing.  Bush is highly interested in the control of the massive Iraqi oil reserve , the second largest in the world, due to the foreseen loss of influence over Saudi Arabia with the possible ascendancy of the Islamic fundamentalists to power. Moreover, the US sees Sadaam as a fly in the ointment of the New World Order proclaimed by George Bush the first, hence he must be eliminated or removed.  
	It should be stated categorically stated that Sadaam Hussein is a ruthless dictator who deserves to be removed. Since his assumption of office in 1979, it has been a reign of terror. On coming to power Sadaam's first victims were Iraqi left-wingers. He has only brought poignant agony, hallowing sorrow and untold hardship to the Iraqi people. The country has never known peace. He plunged the country into 9-year US backed war with Iran (1980-88), the Gulf War 1990/1 and its attendant economic sanction that has ruined the economy and claimed hundreds of thousands of lives so far. The task of removing Sadaam does not lie in the hands of the US, but the Iraqi people themselves. This is because regime to be installed by the US would not be democratic but autocratic. It would be a matter of Satan replacing Lucifer. 
	Scott Ritter, a former chief UN weapons inspector in Iraq and an ex-US Marine officer has disproved the claim of the US government that Sadaam has weapons of mass destruction. He said that his team ascertained 90-95% level of destruction of Iraq's offensive weaponry. He stated further that “
this figure takes into account the destruction or dismantling of every major factory associated with prohibited weapons manufacture all significant items of production equipment, and the majority of the weapons and agents produced by Iraq”.
            More so, according to him, if Iraq were rebuilding factories to produce new weapon, the evidence  would readily be detectable since the country has been monitored via satellite and other means which has also made the procurement of necessary technology by Sadaam for such production extremely difficult.

HYPOCRISY OF THE US

Moreover, it should be noted that North Korea another country, along with Iraq and Iran, that Washington has branded as part of the “axis of evil”
  has begun the process of reactivating its nuclear programme after the Korean government chased out the UN weapons inspectors, caused their installation to be removed and repudiated the 1994 nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty. The Bush administration provoked this action by cutting aid to North Korea but now Washington has ruled out possibility of war in the reaction but diplomatic resolution. Quoting Colin Powell, he said, “We don't want to escalate any crisis, we don't want war”. This betrays the hypocrisy of Iraq Bush as regards the nuclear programme or manufacturing of weapons as a basis for the war with Iraq.
 	The above stated view on the US hypocrisy was corroborated by Richard Butler, the immediate past chief UN weapon inspector when he accused the US of what he called shocking double standard. He said that the US motive to rid Iraq of weapons of mass destruction lacked credibility due to the failure of the US to deal with others on the same terms. He pointed tot he fact that some of the US allies like Israel, Pakistan and India have nuclear arsenals and have not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty.  Israel has severally violated different UN resolutions. Moreover, according to him the US and other permanent members of the Security Council are themselves the possessors of the world's largest quantities of nuclear weapons.    

GLOBAL OPPOSITION AGAINST THE WAR

There is increasingly growing opposition against the war globally even in the United States, but George Bush has refused to grow goose  pimples over that. He's determined to go to war and hopes that a quick “victory”
 will answer those opposed to war.
        At Bush's backyard in Washington there have been two protests of at least 200,000 against the war. These protests took place on October 26 2002 and on January 18 2003. The 18 January protest involved nothing less than 500,000 in cities across the whole USA.  Some of the slogans of the protesters are, “America, not Iraq a 'Rogue Nation'”, “Disarm Bush”, “
No Blood for Oil” etc. The protest had as participants the relatives of the military personnel that have been deployed to the Gulf under the auspices of Military Family Speak Out and some veterans of the Gulf war: Veterans For Common Sense.  
	Internationally a mass anti-war demonstration took place in London, Britain last September with 400,000 protesters. But the size of this protest was overtaken in Florence, Italy, on November 9 2002 when1,000,000 (one million) demonstrators marched, the biggest so far. many other cities around the world have also seen mass protests. February 15 has been declared as international anti-war day of action. Demonstrations have already been planned to come up on that day in New York, London Berlin, Paris, Rome, Athens, Oslo, Amsterdam, Cairo, Stockholm, etc.        
	Three permanent members of the Security Council viz.: Russia, France and China along with Germany a rotational member have, so far, refused to support a war now. It has to be stated that this seemingly progressive stands of these permanent members of the council particularly Russia and France are not borne out kindness of heart or sympathy to the Iraqi people but as a result of their own economic interest that are at stake. They have huge investment in Iraqi oil industry and their own general interests to protect. They claim to be against the war, yet they refused to veto the portion of the resolution 1441 that empowers the US to go ahead alone after the report of weapons inspectors when the issue came up in November,2002 They are  trying to maintain balance so that whether the US take over Iraq or not, there would be a basis to sustain their interests. From all indications they will not join the US in any fighting, but they may let a war go ahead. Meanwhile in line with resolutions, Collin Powell has started categorically that the US does not need the security council and the superpower will go to the war with its allies. However, in reality none of the tradition allies of the US except its traditional hand bag  the Blair's Britain and Australia, is ready to join it in its predatory expedition. Indeed they are all very cautious about a war. Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, all allies of the US have registered their strong reservations about a war, fearing that their governments will be swept away by a tide of anti-imperialist protest if a war starts.
	They were together with Syria, Jordan and Iran at a meeting of the Foreign Affairs ministers of the middle East countries. The resolution of meeting objects the war. They are all fearful of  violent civil disobedience and the rise of Islamic fundamentalists, the development that may lead to the attempt to topple the moderate pro-west ruling oligarchy of Egypt, and Saudi Arabia in particular. In fact, in order to avoid the war, some of the countries have been asking Sadaam to leave the power voluntarily and there  is thinking towards sponsoring a coup to topple Sadaam. However, either option, they are requesting  international amnesty for Sadaam and his associates when he is out of the office.

THE EFFECTS OF THE WAR

To the US war mongers, there is no going back in spite of the universality and the strength of the opposition against the war. Bush is waging this war with Blair. The war has been estimated to cost nothing less than $200 billion. Also the cost would depend on how long the war last. No country except the US will bear the bulk of this massive expenses. This is unlike the last Gulf War which cost $60 billion and was largely paid for by Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia and others. Who will actually pay for the war this time? It will be the ordinary working people of the US and Britain that will pay the price through spending cuts and tax rises.
	The spectre of war along with the Venezuela crisis had already pushed up the price of oil in spite of the increase in the output quoted by 1.5 million barrels a day, the price of oil was still $33.98 as at last week of the January 2003, the actual war in the Gulf would skyrocket the price to the extent of pushing the world economy into serious recession. The workers and the poor would be the worst hit.
	The US will not be insulated, it will have its own fair share of the effects of the war. Already, the US crude inventories have fallen near their lowest level  in the last two decades. The current economic crisis in the US that has so far witnessed loss of 200,000 jobs between November and December 2002 alone will be surely aggravated. This together with any record of massive US casualties in the war, which is not unlikely, will arouse mass political opposition and social unrest in the country.
	Israelis have started procuring gas masks in the anticipation of the attack on the country if US goes to war with Iraq. Actually, Sadaam will attack Israel if the US strikes in order to provoke crisis in the Middle East. The Palestinians have been looking up to Sadaam to avenge their ill-treatment by the Israeli ruling class. One of their placards during a protest against the war in  read: “our beloved Sadaam, strikes Tel Aviv”, Tel Aviv is the largest city of Israel. Iraq has also vowed to march on Kuwait if it is attacked by the US. This is because thousands of the Americans are stationed in Kuwait.
	In the Middle East, the sights of corpses on the streets of Baghdad and elsewhere in Iraq and the fellow feelings for the suffering masses of  Iraq would arouse anger among the Arabs and aggravate their deep seated hatred for the US and the West. Besides, the resultant tumultuous social unrest in the Middle East, this would lead more people into desperation, hence the increase in number of the terrorists and the justification for their action. Thus, there may be terrorist attacks  on the US and Britain which may not however draw much sympathy as that of September 11.

THE WAR AND RELIGIOUS CRISIS IN NIGERIA

Some religious volatile countries like Nigeria may not be immune to  the effect of the war. If the war break out, Nigeria may boil, there may be violent protests in the northern parts of the countries that may degenerate to killing and maiming of people, particularly the southerners and Christians and to touching of public and private property particularly the churches and the American and British property within their reach. The attack on the churches would be as a result of the misconception that the US is a Christian country. The extent of the retaliation from southerners and Christians may set the country on fire. In deed, considering the peculiarity of this transitional period in Nigeria, the violence may be politically motivated, more so, since religion is a means of satisfying political end. 

THERE MUST BE ANTI WAR PROTESTS IN NIGERIA

It is imperative now for the Nigeria Labour Congress and National Conscience Party as an anti-imperialist political platform, to lead the students, workers, the masses, Christians, Muslims, the northerners and the southerners into a nation-wide protest against the imperialist war in Iraq. Besides the need for the solidarity with the suffering working people of Iraq in the spirit of internationalism and the need to avert the looming global economic catastrophe that will have the working people at the receiving end, the character of such a protests led by the NLC and NCP will prevent the anti-war movement developing a religious, particularly Islamic, character. Even if any demonstration is organised by any Islamic group thereafter the risk of it being turned into an inter-religious crisis would have been greatly reduced. In alternative, an anti-war coalition  may be formed to carry out this historic task. It should be stated that the anti-war protests must be linked to the overall struggle against capitalism and imperialism. War, like poverty, hunger, homelessness, joblessness etc. are products of the horrible capitalism.

KENYA:
MASSIVE ELECTION DEFEAT FOR ARAP MOI

By Okoth Osewe

The December 27th General election in Kenya resulted in a massive defeat of the Kenya African National Union (KANU) and the rise to power of the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) which brought together sixteen opposition parties. The defeat of KANU was historic because it brought to an end 39 years of KANU's iron grip on power while it also marked the end of 24 years of dictatorship by the 78 year-old Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi.
	Mwai Kibaki, NARC's 71 year-old Presidential candidate who had also held the position of vice president and Minister for Finance for 10 years in former Dictator Moi's regime before he was sacked by Moi, won the Presidential vote by over 3.5 million votes (64%) out of the 5.7 million votes cast.His closest rival, Uhuru Kenyatta named by Moi as his preferred successor, polled just over 1.7 million votes (31%).
	At a Parliamentary level, NARC got a clear majority by capturing 126 seats (61%) as compared to KANU which assumed the role of the official opposition after capturing only 60 seats (29%). What this means is that NARC does not need a coalition government because it has a comfortable majority to rule and to pass legislation in Parliament. Other parties that captured seats were Ford-People (14 seats) and Safina (2 seats).
A new phenomena was that both Mwandawiro Mghanga and Koigi wa Wamwere were elected into parliament. Both have been in exile and been connected to left wing politics. Mwandawiro Mghanga, who lived in exile in Sweden, was elected MP for the coastal province Wundanyi. Koigi wa Wamwere, who was forced to live as a refugee in Norway after Moi's witchhunt on left activists in the 1980s, won in Subukia. Wamwere was elected on a NARC ticket and the two could be critical voices in parliament.

SPLIT IN KANU
The massive defeat of KANU was largely due to a last minute strategic mistake by the octogenarian Moi who attempted to impose an un-sellable Presidential candidate on KANU thereby splitting the party down the middle. After the 1997 General election, the National Development Party (NDP) made a pact with Moi's KANU. This included a secret agreement that at the 2002 elections, Mr. Raila Odinga, the then leader of NDP, would become KANU's Presidential candidate and help the party retain power.
	This agreement was based on cynical "ethnic arithmetic" that could have seen Mr. Raila Odinga bring to KANU more than one million votes from his Luo community from where the NDP drew its support. As soon as this agreement was sealed on March 18 last year, the NDP dissolved itself and merged with KANU as election campaigns also got underway. This merger followed the appointment of Raila Odinga and other NDP Parliamentarians to the Cabinet. This was a move that heralded the birth of what was seen as the first "Coalition government" in Kenya.
	Last year, as pressure mounted on Moi to name his preferred successor in the run up to the elections, the Dictator committed an expensive mistake that cost the party the elections on December 27. The dictator dumped Raila for President and settled for the inexperienced Uhuru Kenyatta, the youthful son of Kenya's first Dictator Jomo Kenyatta who died in 1978. The major reason why Moi failed to keep his promise to Raila was because Moi was scouting for a puppet who could safeguard the political and economic interests of the Kalenjin ruling class that also formed the core of Moi's kitchen Cabinet.

BEHIND THE SCENES

This arrangement could also have enabled Moi to surreptitiously continue pulling the political strings from his base in retirement where he could have retained the power to sack the President by simply expelling him from KANU. For Moi, Raila's independence did not match the profile of a puppet while the former detainee's massive following of more than one million voters from Luo, gave him ultimate authority to make political bargains from a stronger position. This compared to the weaker Uhuru Kenyatta who was rejected by his own constituents at Gatundu in Central province during the 1997 Parliamentary elections.
	After Moi ditched Raila, the former detainee quickly organised a rebellion within KANU to defeat what became known as Moi's "Project Uhuru". The consequence of this rebellion is that Raila eventually resigned from his Ministerial position together with other long standing boot-lickers of the dictator like former Vice President George Saitoti and KANU's former Secretary General Joseph Kamotho to form the "Rainbow Alliance".
	The birth of Rainbow triggered a series of alignments to the Alliance by KANU stalwarts as the party began to crack. As a crisis of sorts brewed within KANU, members of the Rainbow Alliance quit KANU and joined the nascent National Alliance of Kenya (NAK). It is the new fusion between NAK and the Rainbow Alliance that created the National Rainbow Coalition that dislodged KANU from power.
	After the elections, the big problem facing the 30 million Kenyans is a crisis of expectation from the NARC government which has promised free primary education, the creation of 500,000 jobs, eradication of corruption, an end to embezzlement of public funds, eradictation of tribalism among other hefty promises.

IN THE HANDS OF THE WEST

While NARC does have the characteristics of a populist movement which supposedly stands for social reform, the background of many of its leading lights shows that the leadership is pro-capitalist.
	In the circumstances of dire poverty and unemployment the Kibaki administration will not be able to deliver on all of its grand promises on a capitalist basis. Delivering half a million jobs will not be possible because the country's major wealth generating institutions are in the hands of Western multinational companies. The promise of half a million jobs is further dampened by the fact that 11 million able-bodied Kenyans are out of work in a country where half a million people enter the job market every year. The rhetoric about eliminating corruption in high office will soon evaporate because corruption is part of the capitalist system of government which Kibaki has inherited.
	During NARC election campaigns, the party systematically avoided putting forward solutions to key problems facing Kenya namely landlessness of millions of Kenyans, rising poverty, class differentiation, privatisation of profitable State enterprises by the Moi dictatorship, starvation wages which has ravaged over 6 million workers in the country, collapsed health care and education system together with collapsed social services.
	Likewise, NARC did not address the critical issue of the domination of the country's economy by multi national companies together with persistent intervention of IMF and World Bank in the country's economic and political affairs. There was no word about the reduction of MPs salaries of half a million Kenyan shillings, the re-instatement of thousands of retrenched civil servants and other workers under the IMF/World Bank programmes together with measures to curb external dependencies and internal exploitation of Kenya's massive human and natural resources.
	Instead, Raila Odinga, a leading light of NARC, went out of his way to promise that a NARC government will continue with the privatisation of state enterprises while Kibaki, the new President, said that his government was interested in working with IMF and World Bank. He appealed to the two imperialist institutions to resume aid to Kenya.

SAME NEO-LIBERALISM

From the Kenyan elections, what is clear is that the Kenyan bourgeoisie has come to power after dislodging another bourgeoisie party. The Kibaki administration will continue with the politics of liberalisation that in reality, does not provide solutions to the crisis facing the country. With a NARC government, the biggest progress could be the opening of a "democratic space" in Kenya where socialists (who were banned by Moi) can emerge with a clear revolutionary programme that can effectively address the crisis of capitalism in Kenya.
	Only a fundamental struggle for socialist change where economic power is transferred into the hands of Kenyan workers and poor peasants lay the basis for changing the poverty filled existence of the country's population.